That Glaring Media Juggernaut omission:

 

Hey Folks, those few infrequent readers of my Blog, the last time that I checked MIG jets haven't been scrambled to intercept my International flights, mostly because  I haven't recently taken International flights, particularly over Russia / Belarus airspace. I am trying to remember how I got out of Belarus after my 2017 visit, I think that it was by bus. Most Americans cannot begin to appreciate the complexity of obtaining a Belarus travel Visa. Even back then, one really had to want to go there, I went there to visit a friend and visit the grave of a deceased journalist friend, Pavel Sheremet who was killed in a car bombing in Kyiv, Ukraine in July of 2016.

 For one thing , just the application for a visa from the Belarus consulate in Kyiv is complex, complex paperwork , a relatively big amount of money, disclosures about one's military/ civilian status, purpose of the visit, etc. And the Belarus Consulate itself is truly daunting, the attendant waits behind a very tall one way mirror, you don't see who they are at all . They take your passport and keep it for some time. The decor in the Belarus Kyiv consulate is akin to battlestar galactica style of decor , or something like that.

And then, once you have your Visa, purchase your train ticket from Kyiv, get on the train, approaching the border, a small team of Belarus state security boards the train. Belarus, at that time 1 had a special foil seal placed into your passport, unlike anything I had ever seen from any of the other few countries I had visited. The Belarus Border Guard boards the train, interviews each person, and they look with a magnifying glass at your passport foil seal. They Then use this really old school typewriter to type up a paper about each entrant to the territory . They then give you an extremely small piece of paper, maybe 2/ 3 centimeters in width by 5 centimeter in height. They then explain that one has to take that piece of paper to Belarus State Bank (wait in line with the older pensioners for like an hour) One has to pay the equivalent of 10 or 15 US$ to the Belarus State Bank, and then take the receipt of that payment to the local Police station (in my case, it was Minsk) Then one must further explain to the police the purpose of one's visit, where one is staying, give the mobile phone number one is using, and other details. Once you have done that , one goes to another office where one's official paperwork is received , recorded, and one is "free to GO" And most Americans would not get the fact that the last refuge of "The KGB" actually is in Minsk, Belarus. Perhaps it's more easy to ascribe this lack of rebranding as something like "They wanted to save money and not change the letterhead of the stationary" Indeed it's mystery  for me. The Belarus KGB, perhaps it was complimentary that they did not even hide in any way that they totally surveilled my dingy apartment. It was like the guy setting up the wire taps in the stairwell actually greeted me in some off handed sort of a way, like a wink and a nod type deal. How else does a phone service technician show up to do work in a stairwell at 5:00 PM on a  Friday anywhere in the FSU?

But I digress from the tile off my Blog subject. I hope that speaking the Truth to Power in Russian Federation doesn't ricochet  back at me in some hinky way. 

So honestly, has not anybody gotten one of the most utterly obvious conclusions about the Russian Military buildups around Ukraine's Border. I do not wish, or desire to be condescending about it, yet here is my potential scenario conclusion herein: That Classic "Pump and Dump " manipulation of financial markets when all the tools of foreknowledge and fear mongering are in the Russian tool bag.

If  my conclusion is roughly realistic, given my understanding of how the Russian World operates. The Russian military buildup is about not a territory grab, but a power hold,  that leverages covert financial gains. I had thought that it could be the Thursday of the 24th of February (because Mister Putin likes to ruin people's weekends) but now I am thinking of the day after tomorrow, Wednesday February 16, 2022. 

Two signifiers herein,  led me to the conclusion. Planet Mercury will be at it's Greatest Western elongation on the 16th of February. Mercury is a planet traditionally associated with an intriguing mix of talents, translators and thievery according to Wikipedia. And "Restoration of the State Day" in Lithuania is also aligned. https://www.officeholidays.com/holidays/lithuania/restoration-of-the-state-day which is a Holiday that Russian Nationalists are probably a bit grumpy about, even though it relates to events from what 1917?

My theory is neither that an invasion will happen, or will not happen, but that the tensions of the National security situation will get extremely tense.

 What are the basic tenets of my theorem ?

1. Power is held and maintained largely by money, money held, disbursed to key sectors of an economy.

2. Black money/ Grey money (as is spreading in the media, these taxation, off shorings of wealth using bitcoin, NFT's etc. Black money is much more valuable to a Sanctioned, Pariah state. It has the potential to shift votes, sway, influence public opinion within a largely state controlled media, etc

3. So what is the Russian Military/ Command structure's potential end game within the next 3-6 months? 

Hey, how about secretly making a lot of money off of this , via straw buyers in the International Financial markets? 

I mean to say if the Russian Political/ Military / Business leadership was in on the whole thing, if they had a pre-determined date to feign an invasion fo Ukraine, literally line up troops, tanks on the borders of Ukraine, even inserting provocateur team inside Ukraine, couldn't the Russian Military sort of briefly scrape into Ukraine, from all points on the map, just for a day or 2, roil the financial markets to an extreme level that has never been seen before, and make an absolute killing, financially speaking? If the Russian elite Straw buyers have made "puts" on the stock market (given this advance knowledge of this feigned "Invasion" One could already see this, if one was a market analytical Savant (which I am certainly not) 

The date (s) of a feigned Russian mega-invasion would hover, float , have a searchlight emphasis that would stand out, like no other to a truly gifted person.The Russian elites are truly well positioned to "make Bank" off of this. I have no doubt in my mind, and certain savvy investors in Ukraine, Europe , The USA, China etc.

If one thinks that decisions, military decisions are being made that consider concerns about loss of human life, or the financial impact upon working Russians, Ukrainians, Americans, Europeans, I probably cannot help you with that thought. In My Humble opinion, this entire crisis is mostly, at least 90% about making money, holding onto power. There has been a ruthlessness up to this point in time. A wholesale program of imprisoning , killing dissidents, journalists, politicians who knew too much. What is a little skirmish warfare, in the scheme of things, when there's trillions of dollars to be won? 

So perhaps, this is the Glaring Omission of  media coverage. 

Certainly there are also trillions of Financial market dollars to be won and lost on this one. Western Defense Contractors have already seen a small bump in stock value this last week.

 Russia still has a net National economy roughly equal to Texas, and it's anybody's guess which of the two has a bigger grey economy. Ukraine could be the next Texas of Europe, they just need some room and time to sort some things out, and they are not being given that time, unfortunately, but they are trying, trying to keep it real, trying to move away from their recent past. 4 or 5 years of reform cannot obliterate 20, 30, 40 years of corruption. The West needs to simply own up to the fact, that "It is their thing" Meaning that the future direction of Ukraine belongs to Ukraine. A secure and peaceful Europe is valuable to all people's of the world. This needs to unravel the knot of a bidding, buying favors/ market shares scrum, and focus on what is right, more easy for all the collective interests. Somebody needs to bend down and pick up the broken pieces of civil discourse and entreat that the beautiful music of the region shall continue within it's timeless, eclectic fashion.