Be No Rain

Presidential candidate Volodymyr Zelenskiy.  I am motivated to feel positive thoughts about it, yet I'm missing feeling the mood on the Metro, bumping into my friends on the bus and on the street. Western life is so socially aseptic these days...I miss that peaceful, easy feeling of Ukraine. Despite the aspect of a terrible war, there was unity and a collective vanguard of mutual supportiveness.

It's possible that I bumped into the guy (Zelenskiy ) in 2012 or something like that, at the base of the steps where people smoked Ciggies , outside of a small popular bar called "Reporter " in Dnipro . I remember this guy (that looked, sounded  like him) trying to figure me out,  he  made a rather  uncouth reference about women in general, to which a lady responded "I know English, and I am not a (Russian female person of dubious character). I certainly remember the moment and several other moments with various people from that bar. Mister Zelenskiy being from the mining town of Krivoy Rog, well it's widely understood that Krivoy Rog is run by a hard core set of persons. Dnipro is more or less, the nearest well developed city. Konstantin Kliminick, the person alleged to have been Paul Manafort's Russian Intelligence go-to guy,  is also from Krivoy Rog
Mister Manafort pushed forward effectively using statistic and behavioral analysis of Ukraine's voters, along with bribes and distracting events in the election cycle back then .  This election cycle  leading to the election and financially purging governing process led by Victor Yanukovych (stealing money ) 
. This mention of Konstantin Kliminick and Krivoy Rog Ukraine, and the new president is not meant to cast aspersion by potential association upon President Zelenskiy, 
I actually tend to like him, even if I hypothetically got barbed by his jesting. 
Yet if you want to experience the real Ukraine, escape the bubble of Kyiv, then go to Krivoy Rog and hang out a bit. I'd tend to describe it as the worst tourist destination in Europe. You are going to pay a lot of money for lousy accommodations , yet this extremely broken quality of Ukraine has a weirdly fascinating attractiveness.

The fact is,  that I liked and favored President Poroshenko a year ago, expected he would reelect himself. Unfortunately he's been tainted by the offshoring of his assets as exposed in Panama Papers, and further by essentially having his associates allegedly stealing from soldiers in the high profit procurement of supplies for armaments (allegedly from Russia ). One has to appreciate that Krivoy Rog is one of Ukraine's most decrepit, broken cities, and it's actually a hugely elongated city that hooks left on the map going West from Dnipro. They steal rocks there, it's normal for business. As well it's true that they have Uranium deposits, and it's all generally a massive environmental cleanup site waiting to occur... 
But what could the ultimate "Bromance" moment occur ? Elon Musk (not that I am a fan of him in any way) chilling with Zelinskiy, talking about a space-sex assembly facility in Dnipro and a Tesla battery assembly plant in Krivoy Rog, and wait, not that, sparking up a doobie on a live internet feed and sharing a toke with the President of Ukraine. Could that be on the eve \\ of legalization of weed in UKRAINE, or before that ? This isn't science fiction or absurd , it's quite possible that legalization of weed in Ukraine is something backed by opinion of the general public. I am not a weed person, don't use it, but I'm not against it, as a pain killer, buffer of many ailments. Elon Musk has already gone there here, been subject to revocation of his security clearances. How could the Hemp industry help transform Ukraine?

This is all a very weird scenario for most Americans to place themselves in the shoes of an average person of Ukraine Nationality. We simply could not picture how such a situation could happen to us. America is blessed by it's Continental singularity, with good neighbors on 2 sides, North and South . Mister Zelenskiy enjoys popular support now by default. While I favored continuity for Ukraine, at the end of the day it's probably going to be better for Petro Poroshenko's health for him to lose, and pass the gavel to Volodymyr . An ineffable fluidity in State affairs can benefit Ukraine. While Madame Tymoshenko has good instincts about Mister Putin and his inner sanctum, perhaps she'll prepare to shift over and give ground to a young man who has energy, charisma and savvy? In any case, he's a man prepared to thread the needle's eye for the future of his country. In the runoff, his situation regarding his mobilization papers will come up, yet if that's his only negative, he should win. Mister Zelinskiy does appear to have the support of some of the fighters, defenders of Ukraine, why I can't say for sure, but it's evident.  I have been working on a project relating indirectly to him, yet thought I'd save it to release it,  during the runoff. I am sure that my project will only make more trouble for me, yet it's too interesting for me not to go there. I haven't even written it down on paper or anywhere, strictly something in my head for the moment.



The fact remains, that a little more than 20 years ago, Ukraine dismantled the world's third largest Nuclear arsenal, willingly, albeit with misgivings about how the action could affect their National security and "prestige". There  were sweeteners, hundreds of millions of $'s in incentives in the form of assistance. Probably a lot of that largess from USA was siphoned off to some extent by the elites and variant mafia clans of Ukraine. Yet what were they going to do with those weapons if they maintained them? They couldn't openly sell them. They could have reprogrammed them though. Certainly Russia would have thought twice, three times, ten times, 100 times before they launched an armed conflict with a Nuclear armed neighbor that was simply trying to link with Europe's economy.

Alexander Vindman, I believe that we had met at some night spot in the capitol of Ukraine, sat elbow to elbow and chatted briefly, straight forward guy, another person in my driving and drinking circles like Robert S. Mueller, George Lucas the star Wars movie Director . He mentioned that he worked at the US Embassy in Kyiv, that was all he shared. He looks so different in his military uniform going before the congressional panel, but I do remember you.
In my opinion, the US State Department approach to Ukraine is still largely a Clinton era legacy project, that was probably also being developed by President HW Bush. My being an early contributor to the Russia Investigation, having met, talked with  the special counsel about my work in Ukraine (we have some mutual acquaintances) There was no surprise for me, as to the outcome of the investigation's conclusion. Actually, it seems to be a rather adroit way to deal with the mess. We don't need to make Russia more very angry. I mean in fact that "those people" have to eat,  and live with their authoritarian and kleptocratic elites. The barbarity, ruthlessness and inhumanity of what Mister Putin unleashed upon Ukraine, I cannot   forget or forgive. If he is responsible for the downing of flight MH17, and even possibly the disappearance of MH370, then the fate of those persons is perhaps upon his conscience. Odd that Mister Putin referenced the corruption of Kiev's elites when he annexed Crimea (as his special services had so thoroughly infiltrated Ukraine, encouraged those elites to be corrupt) while Mister Putin ignored the basic well known fact that the public officials in Crimea were as corrupt , and perhaps more so, than Kiev's elites. These ties between Kiev and Crimea were complex and difficult to sort out. It was clever for Russia to pack the stadium of Crimea's major cities with retired Russian Military officers and their families . Knowing people from this background, understanding their thinking, the skepticism about Yanukovych who was a blatant, self serving thief.\\
Now I get it, it's all very complicated. Could Ukraine go back to the way it was in the summer of 2013? With leased military bases for RU in Sevastopol, in exchange for cessation of sanctions, payment of reparations for the war in Donbas ? I doubt it, Russian legislature and Ukraine's RADA could not probably agree on any amount of damages. Why should Ukraine agree to give credit to Russia for building a bridge that is sinking, that was built without their authorization. Why have a bridge that takes it easy for Russians to flood the "Peninsula" I still think of it as a big Island attached to Ukraine's Mainland by swampy areas. If Russia is going to station Nuclear weapons in Crimea in temporarily occupied territory, shouldn't Ukraine consider the option that if they get too much push back from Russia about joining NATO, that they could simply become a Nuclear capable State once again? Do the 2 major cities in Russia want to have Ukraine as a hostile, Nuclear capable neighbor that's really, really angry about what was done to it starting on 2014?

Honestly, for reasons that I understand full well, I spent this day feeling depressed. I remember going back after a brief hiatus in California for the elections, seeing the still uncleared mess of rubble and destruction in Kiev, thinking of the motivated youths and adults who were killed in the final days of Euro-Maydan. And really it wasn't just the youths, it was the Miners, the woodsmen from the forest, the cab drivers, bus drivers, restaurant cooks who fought this battle to liberate the nation from it's corruptions. As the war unfolded, and over time I learned, listened to the stories. As much has been made in Western press about far right extremists, and really seeing such people marching about with their Neo-Nazi insignia,  in the center of Kiev is disturbing, not just for me, but ordinary people of Ukraine,  who have few political leanings of  any particular sort. Yet I do know paratroopers of Ukraine's Armed forces who were actually caught behind enemy lines in the ATO (Anti-terror operation zone) that were simply saved,  due to the fact that Right Sector guys drove pickup trucks into the combat zone and gave them a lift out of the area to safety. I know that some people have extreme views in Ukraine, I am certainly deeply steeped, immersed in decades of far left thinking, viewpoints. I have studied and admired the Left quite a bit more than I've thought about what makes the Right tick. Mostly I view these as parts of vast manipulations designed to stoke the fires of conflict for the sake of the benefit of the few who can profit from such events, and that's on their conscience, not mine. I have never used a litmus test of how Left or how right are you? I deal with people as I see and hear them. I tend to be a rather quiet, solitary person, yet I like loud, noisy company, being a part of the mix.


It is also possible that Russia both made good money (directly , indirectly) and advanced a general preference of their geopolitical direction to emasculate Ukraine , and they continued in many ways to weaken the defensive position  over time. Military bases in Crimea were actively defunded. A prominent general of Ukraine was recently indicted for such illogical defensive promulgations. We see that today, in USA, a border wall getting funded at the expense of supporting improvements of Military bases in New Mexico . A possible weakening of  USA's defensive structure.
In a lot of ways , I think that our President is jealous that Vladimir Putin could put up a security fence across Crimea, and he could not get one there along the South . But the bad people who might intend to hurt to harm us will probably fly into the  USA in Business or coach class (or so some logical analysis could indicate)

Now it's true that hooligans, thugs, Gopniks flooded by train, bus, personal vehicle across the border from Russia into Ukraine in 2013/2014.  Russia was using newspaper advertisements or the like to recruit trouble makers who were paid to go there, not a lot of money, yet some amounts.
A recent quotation of Leon Trotsky came to mind within this recent Tablet Magazine article about China "You may not be interested in war, but War is interested in you" There were mysterious looking , serious looking Asian persons staying in Simferopol , Crimea around the time of New Years 2013/2014 when I was there. Russians and various oil and gas industry people knew full well about the significant extent of oil reserves in the Black Sea, the value of the sea bed offshore there, publicly by 2011, but certainly well before that. The situation of Russian energy reserves being largely tendered to China is obvious. And it would seem that Russian influence in North Korea is highly obfuscated in a very intentional manner. In near future, I see roads, transit paths between DPRK and Russia getting enlarged, traffic increasing, because DPRK is Russia's counter lever against China's  expansionist goals. ON the flip side, one could ask if Russian support of DPRK simply assists the interest if USA's defense contractors who are working out designs for advanced counter missile defense systems.

I can't talk about my feelings about mixing with the young Euro-Miadan activists who were killed outright, mixing with the survivors of many battles backed up by Russian special forces after the Maidan, seizure of Crimean territory. I can't talk, write in great detail about the mixed viewpoints of people I know from reality,  that I talked with in Crimea , shortly before the armed takeover of the territory. Suffice it to say that opinions of Russia and Ukraine were mixed, diverse, fluid, open minded (back then) . I can say for sure,  that I spent a large part of my time in Ukraine exploring the East, building connections, friendships in the Southeastern parts of the country that experienced the most pressure to choose East versus West.

I simply want to adopt "Be No Rain" as my personal motto for the moment,

as Ukraine moves forward now ,   towards a fresh era of starting over. They have been kind to me, and treated me like I am part of the family. For sure,  it seems Mister Manafort will get a pardon in the final days of the Trump era (Certainly his influence was very damaging for Ukraine, and ultimately he may've been the unwitting catalyst for the seizure, theft  of Crimea) .
And certainly,  if the Moscow intelligence apparatus has compromising material on the Trumps, they probably don't really want to have the stink on them, for brazenly using it just yet . I'd assume at this point , that they may well hope to use the leverage within the Post-Presidential environment of Mister Trump, as it's probably well enough known that "Iron Mike " Pence won't be good for the 2 cities that rule the Russian Federation (especially when China's Mercantile elites begin to assume a nominal economic control over the Russian far East) .
And I feel that most Americans are unclear about what agenda lies ahead if the cipher of VP Pence is given the test of leadership. That's the true reason nobody wants to move towards an impeachment process, unless there's just a boatload of dead dolphins or something like that. There's no point in splitting the hair of Quasi-Collusion any further. What is done, has been done, and it's really hard to undo. We can't un-appoint Supreme Court Justices, etc.

[Verse 1: Gil Scott-Heron]
I'm gonna take myself a piece of sunshine
And paint it all over my sky, yeah
Be no rain, be no rain

[Verse 2: Gil Scott-Heron]
I'm gonna take the song from every bird
And make ‘em sing it just for me, yeah
Bird's got something to teach us all about being free, yeah
Be no rain, be no rain

[Verse 3: Gil Scott-Heron]
And I think I'll call it morning from now on
Why should I survive on sadness?
And tell myself I’ve got to be alone?
Why should I subscribe to this world's madness?
Knowing that I've got to live on
[Verse 4: Gil Scott-Heron]
I'm gonna take myself a piece of sunshine
And paint it all over my sky, yeah
Be no rain, be no rain
[Verse 5: Gil Scott-Heron]
I'm gonna take the song from every bird
And make them sing it just for me, yeah
‘Cause why should I hang my head?
Why should I let tears fall from my eyes?
When I've seen everything there is to see?
And I know that there ain’t no sense in crying
I know there ain't no sense in crying
Yeah, I think I'll call it morning from now on
Yeah, I'll call it morning from now on, yeah
‘Cause there ain't gonna be no rain, be no rain
Be no rain, be no rain from now on, yeah

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