Walls or Bridges ?
yes , it all seems rather Orwellian , particularly with Steve Rosenberg's latest post from Novosibirsk,
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-35668596
it's rather hilarious in a chilling way, he takes some chances getting material these days .
roughly akin to something like :Assignment: Or on the Observing of the Observer of Observers
http://www.publishersweekly.com/978-0-394-56010-6
Maybe there is some equivalent with Japan invading China in WW2 ? Lots of atrocities, Putin has made himself into a form of Emperor, and yes, if you are Russian, he is perhaps, a likable Emperor. yet the Russian people are starting to ask why they don't have money just to buy staples, while Putin's cronies laugh about sanctions and continue to siphon off stolen Rubles into Western Investments.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31067977
so they appear to be investing in the Politics of Europe http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/dec/08/russia-europe-right-putin-front-national-eu
It's true, and fair enough that he wants to build and maintain a counterpoint, a counter pivot to the USA, and he doesn't want to be seen as a tool of the economic powerhouse of China, yet he's not below a smidge of obsequiousness to put his coat around the shoulders of the elegant and beautiful , Ms Peng Liyuan, and yes of course, a wise analyst should be aware of the general trends in tensions :
http://amti.csis.org/another-piece-of-the-puzzle/
I was recently gently asked to leave a private reception at the Sky Art Cafe held by some group of Chinese, it was a pity for me, as I recognized the entrance of a large music case to be that of a GuZheng (Chinese Zither) and I would have liked to stay for the performance- I am a big fan of Chinese traditional music. It's interesting that 5-6 years ago there was a Media constructed paranoia about China and it's ambitions in the American psyche, now it's Russia . Of course it's true that in the past, US invaded it's Southern neighbor Mexico, a couple times : 1846 and 1914
The American Left is at least allowed open dissent and dialog about our foreign policy, http://griid.org/2012/06/01/this-day-is-resistance-history-us-troops-refuse-orders-in-1914-invasion-of-mexico/ (for the time being)
And we handsomely annexed Texas, a part of my mom's family was there, when it happened as I recently came to understand.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican–American_War
I am continually fascinated by this deal signed in China, to expand the port in Feodisia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feodosia :
I heard that the Chinese partners got burned, put many tens of millions of dollars down in advance payments...but that's not been corroborated, was there a rebate, or some exchange of favors ?
http://portnews.ru/comments/1746/
but there appears to be a blackout in the Western Media about it, maybe it's not interesting? The scope of the deal was that in addition to the port development , the Chinese partners were going to operate an agricultural walled/ fenced , closed territory, where nobody except the local Crimean workers would be allowed...
And I think if they are going to build a bridge quickly, some Chinese connection may quickly emerge, and I just hope they don't have all the troubles we hd with our 5 billion $ SF-Oakland bay bridge: http://www.wired.com/2015/06/mystery-brand-new-bay-bridges-corroded-steel/
"These three tests aren’t the only ones the rods are going through, just the most kinetic (and most fun to read about). There are a variety of other measures, both mechanical and modeled, that Maroney’s materials advisors will use to tease out the cause of the failures. Nor are the anchor rods the Bay Bridge’s only problem. Water corrosion threatens rods under the suspension bridge’s main tower. There are misaligned deck sections. And inspections have turned up substandard welds in the tower and roads.
and the people of California cannot shift the blame on China for some, certainly not all of these flaws, it was the failure to comply with our own (then) current procurement standards at the time the contracts for the rods were issued that is to blame for that problem.
it was certainly attracting attention 2 years ago before the Green men showed up http://www.haaretz.com/world-news/.premium-1.576212
and USAID studied the issues of Crimean Port Development in 2011 http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/pnaea620.pdf
and today it continues as a backwater item of interest
http://www.portstrategy.com/news101/world/europe/russia-ports
and yes, getting banned and potentially being detained for 15 days in one of Ukraine's Jails, it is nobody's idea of fun, certainly enough to deter pleasure sailing in the Black Sea indefinitely.
http://worldmaritimenews.com/archives/183644/seafarers-who-sailed-to-crimea-banned-from-ukraine-for-3-years/
As Americans going into the polling booth for the Primary and general election,
and given That Russian annexation/ occupation of Crimea, could be analogized, like if the USA occupied Newfoundland in an effort to "Protect the Irish-English speaking inhabitants from the "French speaking Fascist Forces of Quebec "
Should we not ask our Presidential candidates to sign a pledge not to invade Newfoundland ?
http://www.heritage.nf.ca/articles/politics/american-presence-newfoundland-labrador.php
and further, if our armed forces in covert military configurations occupied Toronto to protect the English speaking minority there.....And then we started driving tanks, Armored Personnel Carriers, rocket launchers into Canadian territory to arm foreign mercenary people, Scotsmen, Punjabis who live in Canada, even Tasmanians... Maybe Newfoundland wants to return to being a colony of England ? That would be in the realm of science fiction like in a Bruce Sterling novel
http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/359386.Heavy_Weather
But the last time I checked it, the USA doesn't have imminent plans to occupy Toronto, unless our guy, Justin Trudeau, like VW, "totally fucks up"____ you know , Canada was like a Province of USA, and they easily fall under our jurisdictional framework, manifest destiny, if they are going to be a trade partner, they need to follow our rules, our maybe their Indian First Nations want to link up with ours, and get some good lawyers to make the case of transnational Sovereignty ? it's Tomorrow Now, and perhaps Stranger than Life/ territory :
http://www.amazon.com/Tomorrow-Now-Envisioning-Fifty-Years/dp/0679463224
http://www.amazon.com/Stranger-Than-Life-Cartoons-
of course, we all have to pay some debt to fate, and the Devil, or Heaven is in the details.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/
The issuance of reports on the MH17 shoot down will continue through this year, and most political parties will squabble about what to do about their conclusions, much like the disagreements surrounding replacement of our Supreme Court vacancy.... it's inevitable : justice has it's own "independent" schedule. I cannot imagine where it will go , short of some form of compelling testimony and hard evidence at the Hague, World Court.
I am sorry to mention Mister Trump's off the cuff commentary that Putin "He is a nicer man than I am " wow, really ? Does it imply that Russian propaganda has influenced the Donald ? It was Mister Trump vehemently defending his thinking about the offing of journalists, basically siding with the Putin camp. I guess he has sold some real estate and done his share of socializing with the Russian elites and felt the power of their persuasion ? At least a few high profile transactions went down:
http://www.gossipextra.com/2013/05/30/donald-trump-palm-beach-house-russian-rybolovlev-2629/
and he (trump) is currently a clear favorite:
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2015/10/05/Why-Donald-Trump-Vladimir-Putin-s-Favorite-Presidential-Candidate
I like this quote from the article :
It’s not known whether any members of the Kremlin-run Russian news media physically injured themselves trying to rush Trump’s comments into print, but they were clearly in a hurry. Trump’s suggestion that murderous dictators Saddam Hussein, Moammar Qaddafi and Bashar al-Assad might best have been left in power is so at odds with current U.S. policy, and so in line with Putin’s worldview, that getting his comments into the public realm was plainly a high priority
sooner or later , we all have to choose at the polling booth , of course our party machines tend to manipulate the results a bit , if America does/does not want to jump on the Trump Hump , or take the Bernie Journey ? The Clinton express, or sing the Cruz Blues ? or light up a Havana cigar with mucho gusto for Marco Rubio ?
This " Bromance" (Brother romance) between Trump and Mister Putin, where could it go ?? If there was a schmoozy, buddy visit of a theoretical President Trump to Russia, and there was a coordinated attack with nuclear detonations in USA, now that the Russians have a self guided mini-sub missile that can sneak in anywhere and detonate, would Trump or any President, be ready to order a counter strike on her/ himself in the fog of uncertainty about some scenario like that, without knowing, exactly the source ? It is still a matter of speculation that K-129 went rogue when it sank in the North Pacific, that some subterfuge was in the offing
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_submarine_K-129_%281960%29
Could the North Koreans have faked their "dud" nuclear test ?
Ridiculous perhaps to suggest that North Korea was involved in secret negotiations with DPR/LPR ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People's_Republic
It sounds like a horrid Mad Max style science fiction scenario that Russia could allow arming DPR/LPR with nuclear weapons, yet within the pretense of them being Autonomous, many outcomes are eventually possible. At the expense of Europe and the surrounding regions, the War in Syria appears to be somewhat of a distraction. For the Kremlin, I imagine that their ambitions to manage it's interests in Ukraine and consolidate the seizure of the Crimean territory.
I know what I am saying is absurd, yet Putin has been warm towards North Korea...North Korea maintains viability as a disruptive tool in the arsenal of military and economic options.
Between Mister Trump, and Mister Kim of North Korea, there's a connection point with Dennis Rodman, is there a new variant of Basket Ball diplomacy awaiting the State Department ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bmID6w1buMI
Somehow, North Korea's treatment of our most outlandish NBA star got inside his head :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAprW14F-8k
Donald is doing a stand up job of connecting up to folks with "Working Class Hero" associations
and of course, if a movie actor could be President, then why not a Man with his own Reality TV show ? The thinking of Hollywood's establishment was that Reality TV was a form of Union busting, without having to pay the traditional ensemble of writers, directors at "scale". All of the viable Presidential Candidates will need to adjust their dialogue with the Unions, while they've been diminished in size and scope, they do still exist, and I'm thankful of that. Unions tend to benefit everybody, and they certainly sell themselves on the guise of being socially beneficial.
Now as I have heard, it was some Coal Miner's protest strike (in Donetsk, Ukraine ) and walk offs that were a part of the pressures that surrounded the breakup of the Soviet Union
http://articles.latimes.com/1989-07-17/news/mn-2909_1_soviet-russia
and this is actually a fairly well written article on the matter :
http://ukrainianweek.com/History/20079
Since sanctions have had some fairly significant ostensible effect, while it's mostly attributed to falling oil and gas pricing, why does the West assume the Russians will restrain themselves from obvious or covert actions to cause damage to our U.S economy in some reciprocal fashion ?
What is looking like a negotiated truce, could end up in a decades long stalemate, there is still no certainty. When, and if Russia agrees to return the war broken part of Ukraine, return control of the common border to the Ukraine Border Guard , won't they expect a mandate that they can keep the good part ,the Pearl of Ukraine, high value of Crimea, they have allegedly begun keeping some of their nuclear package arsenal there. It is a big fan of territorial waters to dispute.
Russian claim that Ukraine is run by Right wing fascists, backed by America, yet they support Right Wing parties in Europe , there is a lot of disinformation going about.
Some of my Russian-centric friends are quick to seize on the most ridiculous concepts one could float in the realm of believable... Like that the USA will make an agreement to offshore it's SuperMaximum security prisoners in Ukraine, and of course these movies like "escape from New York" are in the popular consciousness over there. And even some of the Ukraine immigrants here that I know, are suspicious of what the US goals are for Ukraine. Some of the State Department outreach programs that educate the youth of Ukraine about USA, while I hate to be too honest about my impressions: what they appear to do is perhaps not disinformation, but it looks to me like a glossy pastiche . It is certainly a lot about marketing products, consumer goods and brands, if I'm not mistaken ?
what gets me curious, is that feeling I have, maybe there was a long term plan by the Kremlin to keep the Yanukovych regime going in perpetuity??. Oleksander Yanukovych https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksandr_Yanukovych would have been, Like Bashar Al Assad, the heir to his father's dynasty and perhaps funny in a sick way, they are each Dentists....
Of course, Mister Poroshenko is the candy man, a traditional contributor to the core component of the Dental Health care industry (In some ways, it's like a variant of characters in a Bat Man movie )
. I remember about 5 or 6 years ago I had heard it, that the son of the President was a Dentist and he had got to be one of the wealthiest people in the Nation, I was like, what ?? Something is fishy..
Beyond being likable, one of the key reasons for the Popularity Of Poroshenko as President, is that people in Ukraine trust his integrity, that he made enough money, if Roshen's value goes up or down a little during his tenure, it's really the last thing on his mind when he wakes up in the morning. (or at least , that is the assumption) Someone who is walking quickly through the Wednesday evening Kiev Metro is looking at this nicely arrayed Marble right now
The Yanukovych clans MAKO holdings (Yes, like the Shark ) it's Power and the influence associated with the massing of visible and hidden wealth, it's hard to contradict, in an economically poorer Nation like Ukraine. I have friends who sold their vote , for like 10$, back in the Party of Regions era. Of course (Ukraine) they have got some of the real estate under lien, but the clan has the money to hire good lawyers and at least interfere with /delay selling stuff
There certainly seems to be no truth to the rumor that Victor Yanukovych , Junior faked his own death driving into the icy lake, or that Jimi Hendrix faked his death,/
But the clan Yanukovych is perhaps still a distinct threat to Ukraine, while the Russian press has opened up , admitted they were stealing, they are still moving about with impunity, coming and going to do their business in Sevastopol and elsewhere within the Kremlin's umbrella of protection. And Victor has suggested he will return to his stronghold. Would the Kremlin use that scenario to cloud all matters relating to the return of the Donbass ?
And yes, the apparatus that foments and profits from paranoia of war, it has to go up against that natural tendency for nearly every person in most society that wants peace :
https://kinja.com/mfortki
her back link to this is quite interesting , the US Army funding a biolab in Georgia
http://www.army.mil/media/253530
I guess there's good strategic value in the investment, but it sounds also like a fulcrum point of a "24" style TV drama : the high level infectious agent specialist in Georgia, learning his beloved niece was taken hostage when she went near the Russian occupied territory in Georgia, taken and being held in exchange for some sort of access to the "secure" facility in some kind of inverted warfare scenario. All of this bioweapon research is banned under treaty, but with all the work going on, corporate , disease control, somewhere in the world they are doing something illegal on that front.
A great deal of focus on corruption in Ukraine : I think they have the worst of the corrupt situations and lots and lots of the smaller ones greatly curtailed. We have many corruption issues here, our city budget in San Francisco went from 6 billion to 9 billion, and there is still going to be a deficit
http://blog.sfgate.com/stew/2014/03/26/timeline-controversy-follows-california-state-sen-leland-yee-raymond-shrimp-boy-chow-and-keith-jackson/
http://www.sfexaminer.com/mayor-lee-at-center-of-new-details-of-bribery-allegations/
Another unfounded rumor is that Mexico's El Chapo is studying a plan to cause a high Level Mexican Parliamentarian, a woman who currently opposes / threatens the current President, to have her indicted for corruption, imprisoned and to essentially copy the Ukraine Maidan Revolution , but that all depends on him not getting extradited to the USA. There would be other contingencies for him , if that goes through. A lot like San Francisco's "Shrimp Boy Chow's " claims he would bring the City government down with him, so far he's looking like Raymond Chow got his retribution.
It depends on the allegiances of the Mexican Oligarchs, and how they view what the government wants of their business interests , yet these dangerous elements all coexist : it's crazy but true the lawlessness on our borders, I'm not sure what a wall will accomplish
http://www.breitbart.com/texas/2016/01/12/9-reasons-to-fear-mexican-cartels-more-than-isis/
Ukraine is hitting a few bumps in the road, yet they seem to be moving forward, and hopefully the workers and normal people will get some economic relief, if the reforms go through, some of the money stashed away in Europe and USA by the diaspora may return to Ukraine to invest in the economy, let alone the IMF/World Bank
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/a-pyrrhic-victory-for-president-poroshenko
time will tell : not a lot of Americans appreciate how many changes of government they have had in Ukraine over the course of 150 years or so, but it's been a lot (like 9 or ten major changes in it's Government since the time of the Czars? and hopefully, they can get it right this time, they may end up being the most secure place in Europe, or at least equivalent to Sweden, but they got a road to travel and need a little patience from the world community. I hope the children of Ukraine (and Europe) will appreciate the stories of the Maidan's activists, their nearly impossible struggle for change , it's vigor and incredible challenges
and a hoped for result: That the kids don't need to live in fear of another invasion, that they don't need to learn about not picking up small objects that could be bombs. They will learn about it anyway...
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