Market Awareness , 2.0

Perhaps this is a David and Goliath narrative about the July 26th phone call ? Could Zelinskiy be like Charlie Chaplain ? It certainly seemed like he was working out his silent film actor chops, whilst Mister Putin read out his Russian Federation opening position statement today. Hey I've got friends in Crimea who kind of buy the hook line, yet I wonder if they want to go down that road, hook, line and sinker? In my humble opinion, Russia seized the Lion's share of Ukraine's remaining energy reserves when you count the off shore gas and oil deposits around Crimea (and once again, I defer calling it a Peninsula, it's a geologically differentiated Island, roughly akin to the Point Reyes National Seashore

Sounds like the Paris Talks will yield no real break through, yet President Zelinskiy has already perhaps achieved an enormous, perhaps stupendous  feat, that of exposing the corruption and
dis-functionalism of the USA. Mitch McConnel has struck a deal to pack the Federal courts with conservative Judges, and that's his deal to deal with.
I have an odd mix of smoking and drinking buddies. They say it takes 8 years to evaluate a Presidency, and for the current USA president, for sure, I believe it. He has had some vaguely relevant talking  points, and he's also very incredibly conflicted, his style is so outside the box.

Zelinskiy seems to be a square within an oval radius, with a clear sense of primary coordinates, and the ability to shift the direction of the oval quickly and deftly. Trump seems to be a rectangle style man. Putin more like a Hexagon, and President Xi is a classic circular focus individual. Macron I could guess is like an octagonal personality, and Merkel, I won't speculate, she's on her way out after an amazing era of political stability, the hand off of power is underway, we simply don't see it in the press covering German politics.


 and today it is emerging, some news of a closed door session in the Oval Office between President Trump and Lavrov. Yes for sure Russia is the Nuclear weapon laden Goliath, as is the USA. These Goliaths have to meet and work out Goliath style business matters. Unfortunately for my mood, I think pessimism is the safest default in regard to Ukraine's ordinary people, at least for now. It'd be interesting to see if Kolomoisky-speak gets equal time in the oval office either ahead of,  or behind the Lavrov "come to Jesus" talk.

 Russian, Ukrainian people are nice people , more savvy than most, about inter-personal diplomacy. They are expert at engaging big headed persons with strong opinions, allowing those big headed persons  to extol the narrative of how Great they and their world views  are,  how boundless is the unequivocal quality of their righteous and true view of things, and then simply pull the rug out from under them so swiftly that they don't even recollect how they fell on their butt. And I have fallen hard, been really stupid too, nobody is immune in Ukraine, not an outsider, you simply have to learn Ukraine rules, they are different.

I am not the last person that lost someone in this conflict, yet I can contain my losses and move forward. I am a survivor, a survivor of many twisted, many irrelevant, many relevant circumstances. It has been a great privilege to be able to see so many distinct places in Ukraine , meet so many people, always better to meet low people in high places, or low people in lower places, to connect with them , hear their stories and occasionally meet with the amazingly brilliant  legends of the slightly higher places. There are so many great artistic, literate persons, histories to recount in such a vast land as Ukraine. It's a pity that there is still war, you would think there was an answer after 5/6 years conflict, yet there is none, no more . Unfortunately. Perhaps there was an answer to be found, perhaps not, perhaps this great Nation of Ukraine is condemned to a form of  perpetual war, and that's a dark and fecal concept. I hope it's not so, yet I see no good answer in the nearer future, aside from continued de-escalation, backing off from the battle lines a bit more. It becomes akin to an encapsulation, of a dark and nasty, deeply inserted splinter of old wood in the body of the Nation. It will sit in there and build an internal shell, perhaps move about in the National body and emerge at some propitious time (that's my guess, anyway)
In the wash of impressions from the incredibly divisive, argumentative  impeachment hearings at the Capitol Hill this week, last week,
I am truly impressed that 3.75 out of 4 persons is still pretty much totally ignorant that Ukraine in 1992/ 1993 held the world's 3rd largest Nuclear Weapons arsenal in it's hands. These were Soviet era, (then just a few years ago) Fully loaded nuclear Weapons (Ukraine did not have the command and control codes to launch and direct the missiles to a target, but that was mostly semantics, something they could deal with later on, they were Soviet Missile systems within their national territory, yet systems they,  (Ukraine)  paid for, built and maintained within their domestic space)
The other key mis-interpretation these days via the impeachment hearings in the US Congress seems to be that Ukraine actually does have some sort of viable energy resources in oil and gas (they probably don't) Burisma Gas seems to be another stock kiting marketing myth, US Oil industry persons I have spoken with confidentially say that their "on the ground" impression of oil and gas extraction in Ukraine is akin to a "backyard operation" Money and investments won't boost it up all that much probably, but I could be wrong .
The land areas with viable resources within Ukraine ,  simply aren't that big.
Once Russian Federation seized Crimean territory,  and the accompanying offshore maritime footprint, they effectively seized the Lion's share of Ukraine's Oil and gas resources, yet those resources due to Geology, their depth and other factors are technical to develop, there are active oil and gas platforms in the Black Sea. Ukraine continues to be more of a resource as a transit corridor. The resources within Ukraine , it's territory could only perhaps amount to 5-10 years of domestic Ukrainian consumption. It is the Caspian Sea oil resources that have the greatest value to the world markets
Greta Thunberg is a terrific visionary , yet she is up against immense economic forces, perhaps she can have a meeting someday with my friend Nadia Savchenko, this could be an interesting encounter/ discussion if Nadia Savchenko is ready to come out of her time of introspection....

And this is where the devil is in the details,  for one offshore oil and gas platform was actually seized and towed , like by piracy or something (during the aftermath of the conflict period's beginning ). \\

The complexity of the legal challenges of Ukraine's territory of administration, tax collection, resource development were incredibly complex in 2014/2015/2016, and still are. It is enigmatic why Hunter Biden would choose to accept a position within such a dubious scheme at that time.  The issue is not that the narrative for Hunter Biden couldn't be complimentary (about his role in Burisma/ Ukraine) it is simply that once you start down that slippery slope of narrative/ counter narrative, that it becomes a zero sum game.
I haven't done any real  study,  yet Burisma could well be worth next to nothing when it's assets and liabilities are analyzed thoroughly, particularly if corrupt practices enabled the puffing out of it's portfolio . Yet Joe Biden is still respected on both sides of the Aisle (IN Congress ) , and there may be some grudging respect,  on both sides of the aisle for Bernie Sanders (and the hacking of Bernie's  election campaign in 2016, is one other dubiously legal, politically fraught component to that simple thought of what's happening, not about his, that then, what's going down now ? What potential culpability did Tad Devine have in that dodgy scenario back then? I have spoken with persons that worked on Senator Sanders ground team in the Midwest, East coast back then in 2016, who said that they were explicitly certain, that the campaign was getting detrimentally hacked.

, correct me if I am wrong but I assume in 1993  it was #1, USA, #2 Russia, # 3 Ukraine,  With 1,700 Nuclear warheads/ weapons # 4 China . Or maybe #4 was France or something like that? Ukraine had enough Nukes to pretty much destroy the entire planet , in a context of potentially functional capacity, back then.  Ukraine could
re nuclearize it's defense \
(I see that spell check doesn't even have a suggested correction for that term re-nuclearizatiion)
certainly the Patriots, Nationalists do think about this dispassionately, the pros and cons. And this is from the moderate Nationalists (that they are totally capable of developing their own Nuclear weapons domestically, simply put, the USA's economic AID is the only, current preventative measure that keeps Ukraine from starting it's own domestic Nuclear weapons defense program. It is easier, and more cheaper than sending their boys to die in a ridiculous first world war style conflict within their own territory. They, like Japan are only limited by the obligations of perceptions, it isn't technology or finance preventing them from developing it, 6 months, a year, 18 months. It is also why the Dnipro facilities are so crucial within that equation, they can make Rockets for exploring space, or rockets to create the perception in the Russian Federation of "Don't keep messing with us, you stopped our tanks with random social media, news paper advertisements to recruit trouble makers, and you won that one, turned back our tanks with some random villages making our men empty their guns and turn around in utter embarrassment, you won a bloodless battle and a few bloody battles, yet the future is about living to fight another day, and this is your problem.

Yet they (UKRAINE'S ELITES) were persuaded that they didn't want to be in that position, MAYBE LIKE with a little aid money, a little recognition, some semblance of protection, via the Budapest Memorandum. It was all good, if  the elites could take their share, and nobody asked too many questions about where the US aid money went, or where all the inventory went perhaps ? RUSSIA, in my humble , most humble and ill informed opinion, your security services are the sponsors of North Korea's Nuclear program, I feel it is quite possible that Ukraine's fissionable materials were diverted to North Korea. The Press and media is incredibly inept at perceiving the obvious truth that Russia wants a counterpoint to Chinese expansionism via North Korea. Despite  Kim's disinclination to attend May day Parades in Moscow, his apparent hat in hand visits to Beijing, the North Korean Nuclear weapons program is probably mostly a Russian sponsored affair , Russia wants a leverage to contain China , it is clear as the day.

Yeah, it has been a rough week for me actually.

Alex Vindman is a casual friend of mine , and he's apparently sacrificed  his ability, to  blend in with the crowd.  I know film makers, musicians, Alex, various USA and Ukrainian people, politicians , media people. My friend Pavel Sheremet, the other Jamal Kashoggi, he connected with me as a friend. Simon Ostrovsky of Vice News (I haven't heard too much from Simon lately) TO say that these are wild times today, could be an understatement. Alex Vindman appears to have sacrificed his ability to blend in with the crowd, socialize and be normal. As he's my friend, much like Nadia Savchenko, I feel badly for him and her, that they weirdly became somehow,  enemies of the States . That once one goes publicly against the power structure, disclaims the demerits and false narratives, then one becomes akin to an enemy of the state. Or in this bifurcation of enemies of the state, friends, patriots, one enters this ugly grey zone, where you can never relax, never be sure that some weird number is going to go up against you somehow.

Yes,  I was briefly interviewed by Ukraine's current President Zelinskiy,  as well as having done an informal  lunch time meeting with his chief of staff Andriy Bogdan. Perhaps much of this boils down to the question of Igor Kolomoisky, another of the cast of characters in Ukraine that I have run into, or who ran into me somehow.
https://youtu.be/ufCzsOu01tY

SO actually,  one can potentially suppose that this entire morass between Trump/ Zelinsky was simply an elaborate manipulation for my lunch companion Andriy Bohdan to upgrade his security clearance,
bypass Ukraine's National legal parameters for protection of high level officials. It would not be the most untoward or illogical scenario to promote within such a convoluted reality as Ukraine Today starting over. If my lunch companion was concerned that he needed additional security as head of Ukraine's Presidential administration, why did he not simply approach me, and ask for the security assurances of me and my Uncle, brothers and sisters, who are trying to do the work to support the army and Navy of Ukraine defend their territory. What is going on my brother Andrew? We know that you have a Grand vision for Ukraine, and we want to help, just explain it a little please. We know that there is an unsung history of epic brilliance. But hey, I am the quiet American that goes out of his way to tip the dishwasher at the restaurant, from Crimea to Kirovograd, because I am one of them, and I am not ashamed, I work hard for my money , pay my taxes, Love my country with all the complexity of it's history, as does your Nation have it's own incredible complexity.

Ukraine's 1994 De-Nuclearization made the world a safer place. Now with North Korea, this aspect of insurance risk mitigation comes into play. Soon our planet will engage on various arguments about investment on risk mitigation  to derive benefit, leveraging volunteers, grants, and the vast insurance industry, perhaps even the military Industrial complex has enough foresight to invest in it's own continuation going forward. It sounds weird , but it is deliverable.  Advance market commitment towards Nuclear warfare risk mitigation with contingent payments towards conflict risk reduction, this is hot shit in contemporary market parlance, yet it is difficult shit when it is coming out of your ass, the immediate ramifications can be smelly, the feeling of the shit can get difficult.
Perhaps it's gotten towards a time of a geopolitical cleanse ? Take some time, go the the Banya, take in the heat , jump in the snow, drink some Schnapps or something like that, beat your body with the willow branch, or whatever they use for that, and just don't be an idiot, for we all can be citizen Diplomats. This week for America has been about exposing the laundry of official diplomats, and the unofficial back channel things and there are many between Russia , Ukraine, USA, China , India and the European Union, Africa, Latin America. It has been an outright Global Family Feud ! The Diplomats dress is critiqued, blue pin stripe suit versus red polka dot tie. Whatever happened to Rodney King's sentiment "Can't we all just get along?" In other words your people can beat the Hell out mom my people, and my people can do more or less the same to yours, at some point it's simply not worth beating up on each other. There are a lot of good reasons to create rapprochement with the Russians , and there are a lot of good reasons for them to do the same with their neighbor Ukraine.
It its a good time to return to the Peaceful Ukraine of before, localize the squabbles inside their oblasts , regions. Much in the way that Italy is beset with regional contradictions, there is a natural comparison. If you believe that the rise of Far Right in Ukraine came about during and after Euro_Maidan, you were probably never there before that. Torch lit parades are nothing new. There are still plenty of intellectuals who see both sides of the coin, plenty of young hipsters, artists  that don't want any part of buying into a far right ideology. Plenty of Farmers who mainly just want to make money, and tons of innovators who also just want to innovate and reinvent outside a political agenda.
And if you want to gain a clue about the MH17 and MH 370 Malaysian Airlines airplane shoot down/ disappearance I suggest that one should focus on following the furniture, the opaque furniture makers based out of Odessa Ukraine, there are vast and intricate connections to this, not just a few tantalizing exponentials. Of course, there are many questions about Ukraine government failures, Russia's government failing to appropriately supervise the military juggernaut onto Ukraine in 2014, and ostensibly failures of US strategy back then, these are complex equations with many  questions and few answers in the game of smoke and mirrors, yet I still have to beg the question of "Who killed Pavel ?" my friend Pavel Sheremet in 2016. I still feel bad about it. Perhaps I did not even think it, that I had built up an aversion to eating hamburgers since he was killed across the street from my favorite hamburger restaurant in Kiev , but today I sensed the truth. Ordering and eating a hamburger has gotten very emotionally complicated for me. Some times I really do think about what his final thoughts were like when the bomb went off under his car. He was a really nice man. There was no reason for doing that. He did not want to make trouble, only peace. I guess that I am finishing a super long week feeling kind of sad. This is a situation where nobody wins, and the losers don't get a break. Peace Out to my few followers out there. It's not so bad, better a few than the very many. I am in the game to survive it, not to win it.
Whoa, ah, mercy mercy me
Oh things ain't what they used to be, no no
Where did all the blue skies go?
Poison is the wind that blows from the north and south and east
Whoa mercy, mercy me,
Oh things ain't what they used to be, no no
Oil wasted on the oceans and upon our seas, fish full of mercury
Ah, oh mercy, mercy me
Ah things ain't what they used to be, no no
Radiation under ground and in the sky
Animals and birds who live nearby are dying
Oh mercy,

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