Where the river runs quite darkly :
The Mood in the Metro was quite dour last week, every day, most hours, people seemed to be a bit withdrawn , somber . There was notable lack of joy on any face, and not even a hint of mirth. The Easter weekend hardly changed it.
It seems to have been the end of the burning season, dark bare Earth of the harvested crop land , the expertly tilled wheat fields , stretching out like a persona as vast agricultural lands, contrasted with the redness of sunsets laden with ash, as colder weather emerged.
perhaps it's possible to imagine our social media environment as a contrasted realm of "rustlers" and "wranglers".
I think that most free people don't want to have either scenario imposed upon them. If their thinking is wrangled or rustled in a way they tend to agree with, then maybe it's OK.
I am drawn to the conflict in Ukraine as an external observer, originating from a vastly contrasted Socio-economic and political landscape. I find the conflict fascinating for it's complexity. I am uninterested in rustling or stealing away the opinions or views of others, or trying to wrangle some group think consensus. I intentionally don't utilize any social media tools to promote my thoughts. Perhaps , It's a place for those who are ready to search a few layers below thee obvious.
UKRAINE it's stood up, dusted itself off by now, a strong wind blows across the open plains. Old Players are still in the action, such as Madame Tymoshenko, while she is still tainted by the corruption issues of her past association with Pavlo Lazarenko , and after she's recently doused the fire of Nadia Savchenko's political career in her party, Tymoshenko and current prime minister Grosyman are trading barbs, typical of internecine bickering, and in this case, a greater transparency of disclosure should carry the day. President Poroshenko has made his share of mistakes during the course of his office, Donald Trump is embarking on his sojourn of errors and missteps . Being confronted as they are by a constantly shifting and interlocked set of choices and options, often all of them having bad connotations, Ukraine has mostly avoided choosing the worst of many bad options since it's transition 3+ years ago, from the brink of a hard core dictatorship.
The bigger question of how to settle the conflict in the East and the matter of Crimea remains unanswered. Seriously Increasing sanctions isn't likely, outside of renewed territorial transgression, lifting them won't happen readily. the prospect of changing the sanctions in some way, that affects strategic industries more heavily, will be hard to promote , as the argument that such actions will further hurt the "regular people" will be backlit by the specter of regional and National instability and possible economic collapse. I keep hearing stories of war profiteering, but I don't see the flow chart, how it actually works, if it's actually all that significant .
The sizable loss of the Industrialized Eastern parts of the country, a corner post of the National Economy, along with the loss of Crimea, all of the untold economic potential of investments into a freshly reconfigured prime Global Real Estate sector, with untold facets of potential development linking both West into the EU, and certainly to the East, what can happen with a complete liberalization of trade and economic restrictions, the math is really hard to calculate. I have a lot of respect for the intelligence of ten year old kids, and have a hope it's now a time when they can sharpen their pencils and do the math for their future, without the adults and curriculum imposing some formula of interpretation based on the politics or ideology of the past.
*******************************************
I really liked how this article from April 14th, which was written by Denis Kazan a few weeks ago, and print it entirely , as it translates well quite well into English : I think that the dour mood in the metro is largely due to having had to deal with 3 years of this type of stuff: And when Denis writes about "the Killings began" he means that a man who was serving on the city council who approached the local demonstrations (which were filled with provocateurs , agitating, favoring, due to the information war from Russia )when he said something like "Hey guys, what is going on here?" this elected city council member , with TV cameras capturing the event live, he was dragged away by men in plain clothes , never to be heard from again, his body only to be found floating in the river, gutted from torture, they wrapped chains about his body, but not well enough to keep it down long enough , before the cray fish could devour it. Yes indeed , these are upsetting anniversaries in the fate of a friendly Nation. They simply weren't prepared for it:
https://inforesist.org/tri-goda-so-dnya-zahvata-slavyanska
Today marks three years since the beginning of the war in the East. April 12, 2014 Russian saboteurs Girkin entered the Slavic and took control of the city to start fighting.
On this day, I arrived in the Slavic as soon as it became known that the city was captured by the "green men". At that time it was not clear how dangerous it is. The killings began then, in the following days.
On this day, I arrived in the Slavic as soon as it became known that the city was captured by the "green men". At that time it was not clear how dangerous it is. The killings began then, in the following days.
The first scene, which opened in my eyes imprinted in this photograph. Two "green man" stalled at the entrance to the city "keyway" full "berkutovtsy" and ordered the cops to turn around. The commander of the "Berkut" (on the left for "little green men") a little talk with Girkin people and returned to the bus. After that, "keyway" turned around and left.
Cops have not taken the slightest attempt to provide resistance to the invaders, although the bridge was only two, and the bus was definitely more than a dozen people.
At that moment I realized that the government absolutely does not control the situation in the region, and that the law enforcement agencies refuse to protect peace and order. In the same way behaved and local officials. Reaching the city center, I saw Nelyu Shtepa, which in a pink jacket standing next to the armed men and said that "to be always on the side of his people." However, it soon became clear that the people - not their own, as a newcomer.
I remember the feeling of helplessness that swept then.
It was clear that no one is going to do that all local government agencies Donetsk region controlled by the traitors, who do not intend to defend any country or people. Three years later, it is already known that Girkin was just a cockroach from a fairy tale. Crush his gang when you wish you could by the staff of several police station. But at that moment there was no one who would do it.
there was a lot of things over the next three years. But the thing that discourages me today - almost no one suffered any punishment for a total betrayal and sabotage, which I observed in the spring of 2014.
I am sure that most of the cops from the "keyway" today and work in their place, as known to all defector Goluban, recently received an award from the President.
Nelia Shtepa sitting in jail, but for three years and did not hear the verdict. And the mayors of neighboring towns of Donbass, which does exactly the same thing and she - all remained in their places.
After a month we will be celebrating yet another sad anniversary - the illegal "referendum" for three years. To date, most of the organizers not only in prison but are still in the mayoral or deputy chairs in Ukraine controlled cities. Amazingly, even the death of 10 thousand people and the loss of the territories is not made explicit authority to punish government traitors. Instead Donbass somehow passed again to those who incite hatred in 2014, organized the riots and called for troops to Ukraine another state. And now we sit back and wait, when there explode once again. After all, it is already clear that the traitors easily betray us all again, if they suddenly have such an opportunity.
I think this attitude natural bestiality authorities against residents of the controlled part of the Donbass, as well as to those who fought for it and died. Criminals should be punished. To establish their guilt is easy enough, since there is ample evidence and testimony. There is only the political will of the president, who now commands the security forces.
I think it will not, unless there is pressure from the public. So we have to push. It has to be reminded of what happened and to demand that the state fulfill its functions.
The day after tomorrow, on Friday, April 14 - the anniversary of the official beginning of the ATO. On this day, at 12:00 we Yegor Firsov want to hold a meeting at the Presidential Administration on Bankova Street building to remind the guarantor of the Constitution, that it actually guarantor. So, to punish those who organized unconstitutional "referendum" that resulted in the deaths.
In the first place we call all those who like us, he left the Donbass because of the war and still can not return. It is important that first sounded the voice of these people. That the inhabitants of Donbass should particularly insist that the people who destroyed their peaceful life, responsible for everything. But this does not mean that the people of Kiev do not need to come. Come all! It is important! Otherwise, the scenario could be repeated in 2014. And suffer not only the Donbas - affected the entire country.
For many years the requirement to "hear Donbass" sounded in Ukraine. In this case, each time meant that Donbass has a peculiar position in opposition to the rest of Ukraine. I urge the first time for the entire period of independence to hear Ukrainian Donbass. The Donbass, who in the spring of 2014 went to rallies for a united Ukraine. Enough to take the region to enemies of Ukraine!
Donetsk to Lugansk, we have lost. But it is too late to protect Mariupol, Kramatorsk and Severodonetsk. Friday, 12:00 11 Bankova (the presidential administration). Come all. And let us, please, do without political symbols.
Donetsk to Lugansk, we have lost. But it is too late to protect Mariupol, Kramatorsk and Severodonetsk. Friday, 12:00 11 Bankova (the presidential administration). Come all. And let us, please, do without political symbols.
The basic stuff is quite complicated. The potential Balkanization of Central Europe is quite obvious. The information wars are only intensifying. As Ukraine battled such an unbelievable challenge three years ago, mobilized a 100,000+ man army from virtual scratch in months, on a shoestring budget, they stemmed the tide of an adversarial entity that was bent on the destruction of their society and economy. As I begin to sense it in my feelings, it's that Communism has become a sort of brand, well funded, organized, some subtly done touches, some not so subtle. Just as Capitalism is a well entrenched brand from the naked admiration of the Trump Brand, the highly embellished praise for the stylish approach of Ivanka from the Gen _X'ers who see themselves as upwardly mobile. Che Guevara has become a brand used to promote a social agenda.
withUkraine,some of it comes down to what individual people, families experienced under Communism > Did they feel flourishing or feel held back? . Were they living lives in fear of deportation to Gulags or worse, summary execution ? Now Russian forces bring back such elements, taking people to jail for social media posts from three years, 4 years past. With the Crimean Khanate having burned / sacked Moscow 300 something years ago, their memory of the events then , affects how they approach suppression of that community. As the Keystone XL oil pipeline is railroaded through an unwelcoming Dakota Native American community today, perhaps we should be sensitive to our history as white man of invading and destroying their world?
Mister Trump seems to have only an interest in working a deal , outside of diplomacy and nuance of understandings carefully crafted amongst equal stakeholders. And this can hinder his agenda greatly. Our society seems to be climbing up a steep cliff hanger face , where the technology and terrain is constantly shifting and the politics are like foggy weather making a swift ascent more difficult. Being in the sphere of such places one does sense that the emotive elements of Ukraine is well received, how they feel in their hearts as a people is sympathized with by others, despite any overlay of hard media information. It's a sense of common values and larger community.
but what they are going to actually do to sort out all the complexity is anybody's guess : certainly the issues of power, energy and natural gas transport have dominated the political and strategic landscape of the region. After Fukushima , it is anybody's guess as to where and when the Third Chernobyl style nuclear accident can happen in the world. Conservation and alternative energy start to become the more desirable direction to promote and expand.
from Inforesist , written rough translation/
Michael Zhirohov, military expert
In the spring of 2014 in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions were six thermal power plants. In the Donetsk region: Zuevskaya TPP, Kurakhovskaya TPP Slavyanskaya TPP, TPP and Starobeshevskaya Uglegorsk TPP. Another - Luhansk TPP - in Lugansk region. Their total installed capacity was about 15% of the total installed capacity of the country.
And they all belonged to different private companies that played a role in their future. After July 2014 (the militants out of the Slavic) on uncontrolled territory there were only two thermal power plants - Zuevskaya Starobeshevskaya and three more - Kurakhovskaya, Uglegorsk and Slavic operated in the liberated territory, the electricity portion of Kurakhovo went to Donetsk. Luganskaya TPP was on the line of contact and supplying electricity on both sides of the front.
In the summer of 2014 saw the first serious break - hit power lines, transformers throughout the territory, where the fighting took place.
Therefore, the parties began to look for a replacement for the traditional suppliers - Guide "of the young republics" made a bet on Russia, and our guide tried to solve the problem in a civilized - by controlling power flows within the overall energy system (the good station formally remained in the Ukrainian legal field). And even this option has been unprofitable for Ukraine, as the population has ceased to pay for the electricity supplied at all or pay "republican structures", which led to multi-billion dollar debt.
In this case, the constant attacks on the confrontation line did not inspire optimism, especially frontline Avdeevka, which regularly interrupted by a single transmission line, which goes through Yasinovataya with Zuevskaya TPP. This often leads to accidents - especially disconnected Donetsk filtering station, which supply water to the city, and Avdeevka Coke, which supplies hot water and heat.
In this regard, very serious question of creating alternative ways Avdeyevka electrification. However, this needed quite a lot of money, in addition severely squeezed and the time factor. All the fragments of "puzzle" began to take shape in a single picture only in the spring of 2017.
Thus, on April 11, it was stated that Stanichno-Lugansk region Lugansk region to stop receiving electricity along the lines of the so-called "LC" as a new line of 'Dam - Kamyshnaya "was put into operation at the substation" Stanichno-Lugansk ". Its length is 13 km and the work was carried out "Lugansk Energy Association" the entire 2016.
A week later, on April 18 in Mariupol were announced immediate plans for the construction of Zaporozhye region elektromagistrali. Thus, Mariupol plan to power the energy generated Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. In general, the situation is very revealing - after the outbreak of hostilities and damage power grids on Starobeshevskaya CHP (located in occupied territory), the city and the company switched to backup power with the Zaporozhye region. Now, when there was a decline in production at the steelworks, the volume of electricity supplied enough. But if the production will return to pre-war levels, then it can cause serious problems with balance. At the same time Zaporozhye nuclear scientists after the cessation of supplies to the Crimea in fact running on empty.
Finally, on April 25 is scheduled commissioning of a power line Avdeevka from the territory controlled by Ukraine.
Thus, we can say that by the end of April, in fact the problem of power supply front-line areas will be solved.
It is clear that with some reservations - the same line in Avdeevka yet to be alone, without a reserve, which is extremely vulnerable in terms of energy security. It is clear that from our side to focus on the non-volatility of Donetsk and Lugansk regions of ORDLO that during the ongoing conflict and the uncertain position of the parties on the implementation of the Minsk agreement is the only solution.
By the way, the ability to disable the uncontrolled territories of the all-Ukrainian power system to date does not lead to a humanitarian catastrophe - the same southern regions "LC" in 2015 supplied with electricity from Russia, for the needs of 2 million inhabitants is quite enough power Starobeshevskaya and Zuevskaya TPP. But the supply of industrial enterprises captured with such powers without the involvement of Russian resources will be impossible.
In these circumstances, the Kremlin will have to invest tens of millions of dollars for a reliable energy supply, "the young republics." The question is not, will pull the same amount whether the Russian budget - for the great country is not so critical, and the amount of the issue is that the price of the content of the Donets Basin is constantly increasing.
Comments
Post a Comment