Rhetoric versus reality and making up the rules as you go



The many heartbreaking aspects of the Ukraine crisis, one can sense it in people's bones, the everyday people, how they stand, how they look. They are tired of it, their sense of shock is palpable.The Western Media doesn't really cover conditions in the towns, villages and war zones the way Russian and Ukraine's media does, although one can dig around in youtube.  It has been 13-14 months of the most unbelievable sequence of events,, changes turnarounds of expectations, mutations of International policy. Has the United States, Canada, Europe been consistent? Maybe....

People are shocked by the shelling of Mariupol: it may be the first stage in creating enough anxiety among the civilians that it will initiate a mass evacuation, once that starts, other than squeezing past Berdyansk,, Russian forces have nothing in their way to block a somewhat easy occupation of all the entire East Ukraine coastline. Maybe they are already planning an Autobahn ? There was a sense that the conflict followed basic rules of engagement, but now that is pretty much in tatters.

Fixing the aging guts of the infrastructure in Ukraine, it's going to be expensive one way or the other, how they are going to pay for it is anyone's guess. With Russian economy tanking, Ukraine close behind, just hanging on by sheer pluck of determination > I hear that The Ukraine grivnya is trading in private at something over 24 to the dollar, while the official buy / sell rate is 17.  Even the basics, milk, egg bread are creeping up in price. It's an economy on a war footing

 It used to be  a reasonably safe, lovely place with various layers of hidden wealth, a small, well entrenched elite that funneled whatever corrupt takings they could manage off into various endeavors. In a sense, maybe it was like Reaganomics ? a "trickle down" where the people who pandered to the elites got their crumbs of bread that allowed them to live better than those on the very bottom, there were certain jobs and levels of society where people could make good money.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-01/ukraine-revolution-fails-business-as-graft-envelops-bureaucracy.html

the problem for Ukraine is also one of perceptions, can they convince Europe, IMF, USA etc  in the midst of their own economic issues that they are a dependable, transparent partner, that in the long term it'll be a great place to do business ? In other words, the West needs to have some faith in the ideals of the Maidan and the New Government, and the people of Ukraine. That they had enough of corruption and they really are focused on a total reboot of their economy and society, where they can make money honestly, as an open , equitable and just society. In any case, it is a dramatic transformation, whatever comes of it.
In any case, how close is it, this scenario where the conflict spins out of control? Who stands to benefit from an unthinkable and potentially uncontrollable war between Nuclear superpowers ? It is in fact, not so different from the Cuban Missile crisis, it is the actors and ensemble cast of characters plus a wider geographic area.


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