Москаль тоді красти перестане, коли чорт молитися Богові стане

Well the mood on the Trans- Atlantic Metro is that Ukraine probably isn't capable of doing much of anything to defend itself beyond the apparent basics it has at it's disposal, even reading the Art of War, it won't get them very far (or something like that) But being underestimated can be a great advantage : the West does want to help in this Narnia style struggle for Europe's future.

The Russian class system never ended, it underwent moulting, reformulations based on tactical advantages, some did transcend it, based on pure ruthlessness.In the West, we do have rule of law that is more accessible to the lay person. While we also have arcane forms of corruption that are deftly exploited by the elites, it is not perhaps so egregious as the Eastern Europe, Post communist reality.

China, as an ambitious global player has hacked into the soft underbelly of Russia, smoothly positioning itself as a neutral player, stripping away the easy trade agreements in grain supplies from Ukraine, drawing away some of their  best human resources. Russia is playing on a multi tiered chess board, while USA and Europe grapple with their two tiered issues : it's like they want to play two games at the same time and the Russian strategists appeared to combine it all on a three tiered chess board. Yet now the economic factors force a draw down of rhetoric.
I always thought the Ukraine trident is such a cool symbol, like STAR TREK style) And of course my respect goes way past grudging for their under dog status in a conflict with Russian forces : they are being incredibly brave. Some times, I feel a sense of sadness that they have so much grief heaped on them, from the MH 17 civilian  airplane dropped out of the sky by some weird situation, still shrouded in mystery ....why did so many innocent people have to die?

 They are in the process of a massive social and political cleansing, something unheard of in modern times. The systems of corruption, exploitation, yes : I have stared the tiger in the eye. It's been there for generations, it won't change overnight. It is a work in progress and something I think they will be proud of before long.
This is the 6th major struggle in their modern times to define their independence, they are faced with a boggling, massive land grab, people, resources, real estate, strategic hegemony. Forget about Peace and love and free living style (it is why people love the place ) now it's about how the state will survive and what it will look like after all this gestalt.

It has the potential to become a green revolution, and to truly upend the top down formulaic patterns  of the past. it is true, that the collective mind needs to rethink how it relates to government, they are clever people, as much as they seem to be locked in Napoleanic style thinking : guilty until proven innocent. Yet the new generation is raising their voice, asking why so much decision is based on thinking formulated by past history. True, there is respect for the wisdom of elders, yet they are faced with having to pay for all of this strange stuff, war, economic burdens, a faltering or failing economy.They just want as free and open, transparent and accountable social system as they can get.

And there is a war even in the religious orders, a war to define the social space as it relates to GOD, trust in the immense traditions is offset by skepticism,what does the Church really do for you ? What I think Ukraine needs is a Joan of Arc. A modern day heroine, a lady who knows where the sword is buried, who will sally forth into battle without regard to her safety, take a wound above her heart, heal a sick child, be taken prisoner and get excoriated as a puppet of dark forces, burned at the stake of media's glare : perhaps she would have a half Jewish / Russian Orthodox Dad, then a Mom who was half Catholic and Ukrainian Orthodox : the most feared of all , the religious abomination...

 but in the media she would be portrayed as part of a Bonnie and Clyde duo, ruthless, insane,  hearing voices, mercenary. Hypothetically, Among the masses she would be applauded , worshiped, exalted as the messenger of God, of course she would brush this all aside, assert modesty, struggle  in her quest for a political and military victory, try to be just one of the masses striving for the long awaited change : the proverbial New Day of social /spiritual liberation.

Doctor Henry Kissinger aside, and  as much skeptical analysis in the "expert consensus" about Ukraine's defensive capability, do they underestimate having God on their side ? I mean, who really has this God on our side thing in greater abundance, and why ? The old school Soviet atheism style doesn't totally cut the mustard today in this Semyagon brew of media and economic warfare. At some point, perhaps the religious orders have a convocation and make decisions. God carries weight in this culture, it has to be something like invoking a religious solution, setting aside the economic, military stuff.  As much as the Vatican learned it had a lot more money stashed away than it knew about, wouldn't it be worthy of exigent analysis that Ukraine had more defensive/ offensive capacity to fight a war for it's freedom from tyranny on it's own soil ? Will the Maid of Kirovoghrad find the sword of Damocles so easy to shatter, it's dull obsequiousness like a cheap pawn shop souvenir ready to be brushed into the forges to rebuild all things destroyed afresh ?

Any chance that some warheads got set aside?? does anybody have that spare part for a vacuum tube array that can jump start some sort of event that does not explode , yet is still pseudo strategic ? These Budapest memorandum treaties , agreements, back slapping congratulations of the past are being catapulted by Europe, the Russian/ Kremlin  planners and the USA into the ditch of total disregard. Ukraine had some idea they were friends with everybody, but it didn't work out that way. They don't need the least hint of going down that road, not now, wouldn't be prudent. Chernobyll was a military grade nuclear reactor, not your run of the mill power generating plant, the safeguards were not adequate, and still a lot of unexplained circumstances there. And the new Woodpecker film showing at SUNDANCE should be interesting...___..__.

Is it the most absurd thing that you ever heard of, that old school technology can be jump started in the sphere of modern  defensive warfare? Last time I checked, it is happening now. Old tanks with solid state electronics are rumbling around in the countryside, being maintained by history buffs.But I think if a Joan of Arc cannot emerge, then some super hero mix of fresh modern thinkers can build a fresh prototype of peace, find a scenario that is totally new and amazing in the way it can work, and hopefully there are a few women at the table, not just a bunch of older dinosaurs who cross reference the thinking of Yuri Andropov.

Yet isn't it true that all Russia needs is just a hint of potential provocation ? (to take that land bridge to Crimea )  didn't the USA set a precedent when they did the dog and pony show at the UN about Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq ? I hope Kremlin folks don't feel entitled to blatantly copy the misdeeds of my country, they haven't been hit by a massive terror attack, so far. But clearly , everyone is scared about all this stuff, the "smart" missile technology, also as recently tested by India. Isn't it true that the smarter the tech, the easier it is to get hacked, especially if you have the decryption key ? Well for sure, the USA can't allow it's Nukes to get out-teched by China India or Pakistan. But the weaknesses made clear about the US Minute man missile defense, the drive for modernization and "better missile technology" Is a Pearl Harbor moment still a vague  possibility ? Or is just some stupid technical blunder that's incredibly awkward another possibility ? These are all played out in their scenarios, if they didn't , they wouldn't be doing their jobs.

Why is a world War 2 style war going on in Ukraine today ? It's about energy, resources, real estate, and politics : there is no serious reason this should be going on, it is all about waking up on the wrong side of the bed, about not communicating intentions and consequences. Is Crimea occupied, annexed, partitioned , or blockaded ? And the Donbass, will it be just another opportunity for real estate exploitation ? Will 80. 100,000$ flats in Donetsk get sold off for kopeks on the Ruble  ? People will make money and working people will get screwed, for the most part/ they are getting screwed !'

I really hope that no more people get hurt : it's a dirty war.
>There are bright minds out there who can find a diplomatic answer, something where everyone will grumble about it a bit, but they can move on and work for a status of regional prosperity, where the stake holders feel it's in their best interest to cooperate, lay down arms and move forward into a peaceful, modern era.

these guys I met last week, what do they think about all this ? The same style warfare going on today as 70 years ago ?  The battle of the Bulge, at least it didn't stale mate, they finished it. Ukraine may have to settle for an ambivalent outcome, Russia has to decide how it wants to portray itself in this.Obama has got the short stick of perception, but his brilliance as a quiet, cautious Presidential administrator has perhaps been underestimated and the total weight of his actions may have a backwash or second wave that has yet to be appreciated for it's cleansing properties.