A Black Sea Swan Song?
There has been some speculation that Russian Military buildups would result in an attempt to take a land bridge to Crimea and potentially that includes opening the Crimea Irrigation canal. Yet such a move would stop Nordstream 2 and result in potentially worse economic and political ramifications for the Russian Leadership. It would be an ugly bloody battle. Possibly involving a feint breakout move towards Kharkiv that looks half serious as a distraction, and then a blitz from the South , as there really aren't very substantial defensive elements between Crimea and Berdiansk, it's mostly flat and level with no fast roads to get there from Central Ukraine. Make no mistake my fellow American friends , readers that the Crimea annexation, green Men Invasion involved years of planning. The possibility of Russian forces taking control of Crimea by force inflamed debates in the Ukrainian Rada (in 2009 ? to the point of fist fights breaking out, claims of treasonous deals in that vote have emerged recently. Plus I heard that Ukraine somehow lost all high level military communications concerning the Russian invasion and the degrading surrender of their forces.
President Zelensky as a veteran participant of the First Impeachment of Trump certainly comes from a place Krivoy Rog, Ukraine that knows that one has to be extremely cautious when the Mafia makes a request you can at best sidestep the request. Some day perhaps he'd share his first experience of the Krivoy Rog Miner's Mafia apparatus, or in other words, the man has been dealing indirectly with the Mafia probably since his teenage years , and apparently the media has not quite got the Memorandum about President Zelensky's secret weapon .... He can make the Russian people laugh (for his acting and comedic career easily spanned both the Ukrainian and Russian entertainment markets.
As He can certainly qualify as a King of Hearts Character
how he will deploy that weapon is nobody's guess, for now everything seems to be quite serious. \
The other question in my thoughts was if The Tymoshenko Doctrine could come into play ? Does President Zelensky call her up once in a while? Or is Madame Tymoshenko no longer relevant for Ukraine? Her Fatherland Party was Center Left I believe , followed more or less old school doctrines that have gone out of favor.
It's interesting that Paul Manafort hardly changed one paragraph in his playbook of advice to defeat Hillary Clinton from his guidance to Victor Yanukovych, the slogans were the same. Perhaps in case off Emergency, the possibility of a Tymoshenko deployment as an envoy or something could break the glass in the right way. She certainly knows the weak spots in Russia as well as anybody.
As to the Newest development, the Biden Administration (since I have been silent here for over 6-8 months) It is my understanding that US Department of State has adopted a "Shinbashira" configuration to structure foreign policy according to a central Core that moves when the Typhoon hits the Pagoda, those parts on the Lee side off the wind (as in Western Europe) will tense and stay in configuration of it's established order to brace Ukraine if it faces a further Russian onslaught of aggression. Putin probably will time any military action to cause the Ukrainian Rada to go into emergency session right at or near the start of their late June 18 vacation break, just to be spiteful towards them .
Russia has many issues and to be truthful, The Russian people are all just as great as Ukraine's people. Everybody should be able to get along quite well together. Yet the long term goals of the Kremlin do involve some expansion of power, projecting power and perhaps making it clear there won't be a Springtime for Biden in foreign affairs is the message from this troop buildup on Ukraine's Borders. It's such a long border and there's simply limits to what Ukraine can do. It is amazing to see that a World War 1 style war characterized by trench warfare is happening in the 21'st Century in Eastern Europe .
The Russian world's depiction of Ukraine as being a place dominated by Facist Nazi elements is so absurdly constructed. There's pretty much a similar ratio of skew between left and Right as in USA. Often I'll meet Ukrainians who are well versed on Noam Chomsky's writings, views. For awhile in America, it was even loosely used as a verb Chomsky-speak. As to if there's such a thing as Rinat Akhmetov -speak, no it seems he only speaks through intermediaries. Certainly there is Kolomoisky-speak. I have spoken to Kolomoisky 1:1 over coffee in Kyiv one time , he basically ambushed me and walked into the cafe where I was getting coffee and sat at my table, what a character ! A man that can fund his own battalion and declare openly that Mister Putin is his own personal enemy (but in the same moment he'd probably something like "This is best finished as quickly as possible so we can all get back to making money" Of course he's got issues with sanctions. The USA should really look under the tablecloth and talk to Mister Kolomoisky's accountant (I am sure that person lives in Cyprus or Malta, or the Seychelles and have converted as possible much of the Kolomoisky wealth into bitcoin by now...
When I think back about all the folks I've met in my travels, visits in Ukraine, from having drinks with Nadia Savchenko weeks before her capture in the onset of the war, President Ze (before he was President) he made a joke about me in his basic English that wasn't half bad) Having a quiet lunch with Andrey Bogdan (Ze's former Chief of Presidential Administration ) sharing a plane flight with Victor Yuschenko, having tea with Pavel Sheremet (even in early 2015 Pavel, was questioning me about Trump, he knew something I believe and I truly question why he was killed by a car bomb so intentionally during the week of the 2016 Republican National Convention)) Such a wonderful man and so sad about that . Plus they killed him across the street from my favorite Kyiv hamburger place, which kind of ruined my ability to eat there without thinking about Pavel. The Klitschko's I've met both of them informally , they are out and about so that's not unusual. Gyundoz Mamedov the Prosecutor in charge of sorting out the many legal issues of the Crimean annexation and such, yes I know him as well, shared a meal with him and his wife in Odessa. The Burisma thing, he was peripherally involved in some of that, what most people in USA wouldn't really understand about Burisma is that in the context of Texas oil and gas producing Companies , they really would not be considered much of an operation in terms of scale. And the Russian Invasion and occupation of Ukraine really messed with their business plan. There is some offshore oil and gas around Crimea, but it's deeper down and too expensive to develop for now. It was really the maritime footprint of Crimea that had the most significant strategic value which is proving to be a front page news issue just now. I was also friends with the Ukraine Airlines Co-Pilot that was shot down over Tehran last year, that was a rough ne and a lot of the same questions arise as the MH17 shoot down event. Why was the CIVILIAN FLIGHT IDENTIFICATION SIGNAL DISREGARDED ? There are a loot of unproven theories, reasonings. One thing I feel certain about, is that Russian intelligence likely compromised somehow Ukraine's Air Traffic Control. I can't speak more about that here.
And Alexander Vindman, yes I know him, met him too socially , we had a chat at the bar once in a crowded night spot . He's a social person like any of so many other people. And I have met people State side who know him socially as well. He may well be an element in the Biden Shinbashira configuration , but I haven't looked him up lately. He probably needed some personal time.
Is it also true that I was indirectly connected to Boris Nemtsov's initiatives to promote understanding in Ukraine and show some compassion? Well, maybe < He was quietly doing things in Ukraine, I might have known some people working directly on one or 2 of those things. He was skilled because of his open position about Ukraine, that there was no need or benefit to such hostility. Well I've been investigated by Ukraine, I was also briefly a person of interest in the Russia Probe. I am just a private citizen who's good at meeting people. My College Education began with work experience course work in Dishwashing, and I've taken care to be sure that my dishwashers in Crimea see a modest tip from me when I've enjoyed a meal on spot free plates, glasses and silverware, because I know the feeling of being under appreciated ...
And who really is this old school NKVD strategist that learned from the old, old textbooks and leveraged the Capitol Hill Riot using Youtube and Facebook with a little Grey money ? It's all based on Hypnotic language programming, built on specific pacing and subject narratives. As Congress digs it's way through this debacle upon our Nation's house, perhaps they should simply ask "Who was the Mastermind?" It's not just disinformation , but skilled psychological manipulation. And possibly, Paul Manafort was coaching Potus on posturing , messaging in those desperate weeks attempting to cling to power? Who knows.
We should ask the Man on the Street in Simferopol what is their thinking about the water problem?
and above all else , one has to assume that Victor Yanukovych's (then 33 year old son faked his death https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32009480) Not to in any way, to aggrandize the man or his family, more to empathize the point of a totally a Frank Herbert Dune style\ Baron Von Hakkonen narrative type theme element. I have talked to eminent persons on the music industry of Jim Morrison of the Doors faked his death, and they ascribe it as entirely probable, that the man simply wanted to escape the flame of public attention (faked his death) . if some such thing is true, despite war and upheaval, then the intrigue of Ukraine will never end, and that is unfortunate really. Yet the people of Ukraine will survive and somehow overcome obstacles of the cumbersome legacy of such past , unimportant leadership.
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