A Very Complicated: Difficult Situation
that is my interpretation . President Zelinskiy is definitely under the spotlight now , Playing a role akin to the King of Hearts (and to be fair, not everybody voted for him, he has to continue to earn the public's trust) / He's certainly on the hot seat , as President Zelinskiy is finding himself at the crux of the Presidential impeachment process in the House and US Senate.
It appears to me simply the most obvious answer to the crisis of Ukraine's Security is not the simple option a, option b. The answer may situate itself in listening to the issues of it's adversary and concocting a third option. A 3rd / non binary option, that makes it unequivocally clear that the Russian Federation's leadership structure(s ) cannot disagree with the third option, without engendering the risk, that neglecting that choice looks really bad for themselves ( as it were, separating the leadership's interest from the broader interest of public good, welfare) Yet what this third option actually is just now, I cannot quite picture what it is. One gets a vague sense of it, the dribble of vague bits and pieces of information in the media. Russian social fabric probably is on the verge of some collapse (the economy is a separate issue, yet coupled )
. I was there in Ukraine during 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 when you could feel real and intense Patriotism in Ukraine, Russia doesn't have that, My opinion is that The Russian Federation has largely lost the faith of it's citizens, for the moment.
Ukraine is like a snail, slithering on the edge of a razor. If it goes ever so slow, does not make any sudden movements, it can survive this moment in it's history. And if you know where to go, Ukraine is still one of the best places in the world to get good frog's legs in the spring and early summer.
If the Trump administration has had concerns about corruption, vis a vis USA's AID, military assistance, haven't we been underwriting the Russian SOYUZ Space program for quite a while now? Aren't they charging a 26 X increase in a cost per seat of the Soyuz launch program? The seating arrangement is still very tight yes? That is certainly a lot higher than the general rate of inflation, and the amenities per seat haven't improved, it's still pretty much a coach, low budget affair, with a really rough landing guaranteed in the pricing.
I was at the California Department of Motor Vehicles recently, and a Russian guy was working as an expediter for some Kazakh Gentlemen, no kidding. I actually like Kazakhs, they are a terrifically great people! As are the Russian people, they are all terrific. I will not admit favoritism for Kazakh, Ukraine, Russian , West Texas/ East Texas people (well, maybe I tend to like the East Texas accent a bit more) Is boosted Cosmodrome Construction money possibly going to California, with a mountain of Gold ? It wouldn't surprise me much.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/22/russia-launches-crackdown-on-spaceport-corruption-vostochny-cosmodrome
https://commons.erau.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3648&context=space-congress-proceedings
https://www.businessinsider.com/space-travel-per-seat-cost-soyuz-2016-9
If anybody has conducted the most cursory review of recent History in Ukraine, one could quickly surmise that Investigations in Ukraine are akin to a Blood Sport in the modern Ukrainian vernacular. Nobody ever really wins , at best one lives to fight another day. Which is why it seems so ridiculous that Lev Parnas thought that he could come out ahead of the curve by pressuring for investigations of the Bidens . It certainly seems true that Hunter Biden experienced a lapse of judgement accepting the Burisma Gas position. Apparently, Yatseniuk's advice, "there is no free cheese in the mouse trap " possibly came too late (for Joe Biden). The problem for Hunter Biden, and conversely Joe Biden is that exploring his narrative, only leads to further complicated counter narratives. The positive, superficial narrative, only invites further questioning of his role in the Ukraine/ Post Euro_maidan Equation (how many days dod Hunter Biden spend on the ground? Did he remain entirely in Kyiv? Most people will say to you that Kyiv is a wonderful city, yet it isn't the real Ukraine ).
And I like Joe Biden, he's a good guy and like what I sense about Hunter Biden, it's simply a known effect, that "narrative" simply leads towards a room of smoke and mirrors. When the Press or the Biden campaign does or does not, release more information about the actions of Hunter on the Burisma gas board, one enters into probable layers of detail, each with a narrative and an oppositional narrative. Ukraine has become akin to a poison pill for American Politics, and now we see these toxins coming out in the United States Senate. Setting aside our politicians, it was the guidance of USA's diplomatic corp, working in concert with our political establishment that forged this reality of Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan's nuclear dis armament process in the 1990's . This all came at an enormous risk and significant cost, yet in retrospect, despite this tawdry impeachment process, it could well enough be proven worth all the hassle. We cannot reverse engineer geopolitical process outcomes very easily, the computational power simply isn't there.
I had actually encountered Yuri Lutsenko in Public in the days following President Poroshenko's election in 2014, at a street party. I will simply say this of the man, he is incredibly smart, he has a street smarts of a very high level, despite enduring recent imprisonment during the Yanukovych regime, and the anxiety of an unknowable fate, he persevered to break on through to the other side.
One could scarcely imagine, meeting such an historical person randomly, with such an inimitable cunning (it is always better to meet a person randomly rather than through some anticipated plan, you get a better sense of them ) . Beyond this , I have no real opinion. Yuri Lutsenko is just one of those really smart people, a survivor to the core. He is clearly following the Impeachment trial in the Senate and attempting to configure his public and private positioning.
Many things Impeachment trial related , are being compressed by the House and Senate staffers (obviously many of them, they worked through Thanks Giving, Christmas ? / New Years holidays )
, complex questions are being dissected, white boarded in many ways,
what is efficacious to focus on, what is somewhat unknowable for now. As if the Corona Virus scare is a consequence of the Russian Bioweapons lab breach , and who would stand to benefit from this stalking of Global Health? (Ghost investment consortiums certainly could benefit from it )
It is new Territories of Hong Kong and elsewhere, for them to consider. Yet the sniper stalking games in Eastern Ukraine continue, how would Americans citizens feel if highly trained Russian snipers were stalking citizens of Alaska in a vaguely feigned media warfare event ? This is Ukraine today, not an imaginary hypothetical, an actual reality that costs the lives of people dedicated to their national defenses . Why would some hypothetical entity park a weaponized virus in Central China in this time? it is anybody's guess as to what is real, fake accidental. Yet to say that an animal market in Wuhan China became an outbreak center due to alleged "illegal animal trading" Hey, I have a few more good fairy tales to sell some feel good tabloids you might follow about "what's going on." Or maybe it was just people eating bats out of caves, who knows what is true? I don't have any idea.
The questions about the hit on the Iranian general could be potentially ensconced with considerations of who knows what, and what were they prepared to do with that information ? Perhaps was this individual inconvenient for the strategy and aims of the Russian Federation ? Time will tell, or not,
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/01/trump-should-know-about-irans-revolutionary-guard-he-did-business-with-people-linked-to-it/
Why has Mister Trump's personal attorney been meeting with Gyundoz Mamedov, There are some obscure press reports about it , I know him (Gyundoz ) and he's a polite, considerate and very direct man, who has a talent for understanding incredibly complex issues and access to information outside the ordinary spectrum of the press. Is there something about the Hotel built in Baku at the wrong place in Baku Azerbaijan town ? ,
Is Rudy Giuliani working in the President's Kitchen cabinet and advising the POTUS on key decisions? POTUS choosing to do a hit job on a significant, and in some quarters, well regarded individual in the Middle East Diorama, is certainly questionable. Is the Trump of House Cards be falling to start ? Really all of this trouble is simply about Crimean territory. Both Ukraine and Russia neglected it, didn't fully understand it very well until recently when they dug around in the weeds. Russia simply parked a lot of retired, and older Military families in Crimea at a small subsidy for many years. Yet Crimea ,Chersonesus
was a Greek, and before that, a Phoenician town. And I actually have met, know a descendant or two, of the Phoenicians of Ukraine
Certainly there are aspects of things to potentially admire, try to dissect, give the benefit of the doubt, to the purportedly badly skewed US Presidential Administration's Domestic and foreign policy actions. The question that I have is, when would the Kremlin think that it's maybe about time, to throw the POTUS under the bus, do they have that power, with the allegedly incriminating items that they seem to hold close? Oh but there is so much Real Estate to develop in Crimea, maybe one more Trump Tower to mark Planet Earth...
Could they simply not afford to lose their most ardent advocate?
Is it imaginable that a directed energy weapon was deployed against Ukraine Airline's flight ? Well they admit hitting the plane with missiles, yet that doesn't eliminate the idea it wasn't hit by multiple forms of attack, the least of which could have been electronic signal jamming technology and so forth. It starts to feel like somebody really, really wanted this particular flight to not leave Iran intact, if so, why ? Is the explanation of a communications blackout sufficiently believable enough, within the strategic scenario at the time for Iran ? Personally my opinion is that Iran identified one individual on the Ukraine International Air lines Flight that had potentially explosive information on the ramping up of the Iran Nuclear weapons development program, but there are other scenarios, there is always 7 alternative conspiracy scenarios that inveigle themselves against the simple supposition of ineptitude.
People are skipping towards the obvious conclusion , that the flight collided with , or was hit with a conventional missile. A DEW probably could either ignite the fuel tanks, or override nearly all the communication systems. If the USA is working on it DEW tech, you can probably bet that all the big players are doing the same too. Would the shielding of the Boeing Plane's Black Boxes survive a DEW burst? These are all the questions the investigations will need to probe. Only very specific and probably classified satellite and ground based technology can disseminate the veracity or false nature of a DEW burst, evidence that Defense Departments are reluctant to reveal at a United Nations Hearing. The allegations of Iraq's intention to develop Nuclear weapons (that led to the 2nd Gulf War ) are now a mostly discredited accusation. For USA to cry Wolf when the Hound Dog's call is unmistakable could become an irrevocable blunder in Foreign policy at this moment in History.
Unfortunately for my mental state this last couple of weeks,I did happen to meet Sergey Khomenko, the co-pilot of the doomed Ukraine International Airlines flight PS752 , some years ago, not in a professional capacity, but simply through the fact that there are only so many places people socialize in Kyiv, we had drinks together and talked a bit at a busy, popular Club at the bar on the far (stage right) corner of the club, away from the main bar mostly occupied by the foreign persons, he was a good and friendly soul, I could sense it right away.
it is just one more difficult to process burden in my heart, a very good and friendly life cut short, as there have been many others in the protracted territorial conflict. He was modest and just said he did some stuff in aviation, knew how to fly a lot of different planes. He was nice to me, made me feel like I was with him, safe within his personal space, protected. Honestly, I feel terrible about it, while it was a glancing introduction, it was a well done and unforgettable moment singed into my brain, like it was yesterday. I felt like we really connected as people despite the vastly different life histories that we were derived from. I am not saying like he was my brother, just that we had that space that we felt friendly and enjoyed each other's company. It kind of feels like something reminiscent of the Jimi Hendrix song "I'll meet you in the next life, so don't be late" If the Russians were involved, if Wagner elements were on the ground in Iran, I simply don't want to speculate. There appears to be far too many well educated Canadian Iranians on the flight, not to speculate that there was somebody on the flight collecting, gathering information on Iran's covert Nuclear Weapons development program. Yet also there could be a vein of thought, that it was some mechanism to rattle the cage of President Zelinskiy, you knew, suspected that such a moment would arise. Yet most of us suspected it would be a breakout event from DONETSK, LUGANSK. Certainly snipers and other elements have engaged on the ceasefire zone in Eastern Ukraine recently. A lot of Ukraine's men have died , just in the last few weeks, all of this has to weigh on the thinking of the President. I think that he will be a 1 and done President, and that's to his credit of it becomes true. I see few advantages for him to remain past the 5 years, there are 4 more years of hard and difficult work to get through/ it's not easy being president and trying to make a break from the past.
just give this place back to the world, give it back to Ukraine. Crimea is naturally connected to Ukraine. All this war and death, is only about 1 place, Crimea. It is not about Donetsk or Lugansk. I have good and close friends from both places, and honestly I have fewer close friends from Western Ukraine. Simply put I understand the situation. People in the East, the young smarter, more savvy know that it was an artificial media putsch, not a real social event. It was something created out of nothing, a conflict made out of artificial narrative. Much as some older United States Senators have bought into the Russian media narrative, fine \ if that is what they want to do, here and now, it's their choice to do so, and I will not judge any man or woman on Earth that I have not met in person. To each according to her or his own needs and abilities in life, yet the Crimea was amongst the world's most prime and most strategic real estate. You would be stupid to think otherwise, possibly even more so now with climate change, if the middle East becomes somewhat uninhabitable due to excessive heat and drought . There is a lot of space and materials to build homes, palaces n them thar hills of Crimea, particularly with Middle Eastern money, and this is a tax base stolen from Ukraine at the barrel of a gun, regardless of what the public had a chance to consider in 2014.
I have flown on many Ukraine International Air flights, have friends who have worked on their cabin crews. For me , this is a dark, inexplicable day, yet not unimaginable. There is indeed a good bit of bad blood between Putin and Kolomoisky. Despite Mister Kolomoisky recently remarking that all could be normal enough in 5 years time . Kolomoisky is said to have plundered his own bank, and Mister Putin did not just rob Mister Kolomoisky's bank, Putin took Private Bank's assets in Crimea, Lock, stock and key, without so much as a verifiable inventory sheet. The mobile missile launching systems Russia sold to Iran are apparently remotely operable, wherein full control of the Russian Missile system can be remotely over ridden, that short of physically hacking wires , the operating crew cannot cause or prevent the system to launch. Will the investigation teams get full access to all of the equipment used to launch the missile (s) ? And will they have full access to the radio and telecommunications equipment infrastructure of Iran that was operational at the time of the incident?
And that was the maelstrom of Chaotic situations Gyundoz Mamedov was tasked with Navigating in 2015
If you look at the video from Iran, it looks like the plane was trying to make a lightly spiral landing in a somewhat controlled manner. This is extremely hypothetical on my part, but if Iran was going to launch a large missile attack on USA's bases in Iraq, would they not anticipate some reciprocal action ? Would they, (Iran ) not lunge at the chance to acquire some advanced technology anti - missile defense ? It is well known that since sanctions were imposed that Iran simply sold it's oil for Gold Bullion, a small plane load of Gold bricks for a tanker of Oil. Russia certainly does it's business today using the hard currency of Gold bullion, both buying and selling.
Ukraine has a lot of interactions (that I can't quickly reference online) with Iran, commercial investments at stake, various considerations, they aren't adversarial in the Diplomatic context. Iran is also interested in commercial development within Crimean territory. The Tatar community looks in many directions for a hope of salvation from Russian domination. I certainly knew some terrific Iranian women who were quite active in the Kyiv social circles, medical students as it were.
I have to say that all my hopes are centered on the thought that the US Congress and Senate will start to do it's job again, doing the work of the American people. In a lot of ways, I don't care about the immediate outcome, perhaps I tangentially care about how North Korea perceives that outcome. We all know that Russia plays a big hand in DPRK (much bigger than it gets much credit for )
. China knows that. China wants it's chunk, not only to keep it's influence in DPRK, but perhaps Russian Federation as well. China, They seem to prepare use the President of Russian Federation's strategy against them. China knows that time is likely on it's side, yet multiple layers of potential chaos create uncertainty for she. Maybe I was wrong in my previous post about Ukraine's energy reserves yet they aren't a lot.
The Russian Federation took an amazing strategic territory from Ukraine, and they are paying, will mostly keep paying quite a lt for that, if the European strategic partners don't simply crumble in their support for continued sanctions. I feel bad for my "ciggie buddy" Volodymyr Zelinskiy, for this is a bad strategic hand to be dealt. He is even said to personally , with his wife own property there in Crimea.
This "Time Magazine " article and all, it still failed to capture his actual perspective of a Krivoy Rog kind of guy. I know that town, Krivoy Rog , rode on it's old Trams, saw it's shabby, worn down Soviet era buildings, slept in them. He cannot change his home city overnight, or perhaps even in a decade. It is a city largely robbed of it's prospects, much like the most neglected, worst of the failing coal mining towns of USA's Kentucky. \
Comments
Post a Comment