The Cold War Kids, an Odd Couple Road Trip, or a Guns and Roses Nostalgia Tour ?
In these times, it seems like a silence time, for those quiet voices of opposition to the State apparatus in Russia , yet in the USA, we suffer an incredibly difficult and arbitrary polarization (Some part of that amplified by Russian interventions in our internal dialog) . Perhaps our mutual survival, depends on finding faith through a sense of redemption, both personal and societal. It may, in some ways be like Season 5, in the 24 Hour TV series, a show down at the High noon . Things going incredibly wrong, at the highest levels of power and the millions of lives and Roubles at the stake. Yet come the weekend the party will probably go on, the band will continue to play on.this short post is the most telling of current reality for Ukraine concerning Mister Manafort :
Slavi Ukrainia! (I have roughly translated as "Word Up Ukraine " Just say to me what is on your mind, ( whatever you have to say to us about your thoughts, is probably good and interesting! " )
There are many misperceptions about Russia and Ukraine, for one thing there is a perception that the business community in Russia is aligned with the public approval of the Russian Government's leadership. The business community is better educated, more aware of a larger reality. I do not believe that they see much reason for having a massive conflict with Ukraine. I am not there in Ukraine, talking with business people of Ukraine today, yet based on past conversation, it's safe to surmise that the recent ugly history between the Nations, squabbles and unspeakable things, if it was purely about money and economic progress, if Ukraine regained control of it's borders and internal security, that this would be an entirely different economic equation. Now it's more about crime and punishment. The reasoning behind the downing of MH17 (Setting the conspiracy theories to the side) remain clouded. While few will argue it was a Russian BUK missile launcher driven by road across the breached, Eastern Ukraine border, how and why was normal precaution overridden? THe launching system should have read the transponder code, that it was a civilian flight across Ukraine's airspace. What Happened ?
I Hope that things are calm, and cool in Ukraine, in these hot summer times, despite the ongoing war that obviously takes precious and unique , treasured people away from Ukraine every day, week , and month. I have attended a memorial or two, for Ukraine's young men caught in the crossfire. It is certainly unnerving, gives room to pause in your thoughts. This war will never be forgotten by Ukraine, they had gone through enough tragedy under Communism, and before that under Tsar's boot. It still seems odd that a Predominantly Right Wing , Orthodox Christian Fighting Force is at each end of the conflict, although there's a few more Catholics on Ukraine's defending forces.
(adjourning photo is from inside an abandoned church in Ukraine , just a handful of kilometers from the Russian Border)
You know I feel bad, and it is hard, difficult for me, as I know these people, their friends, family:
Can't we all just get along? I have good friends from Dontesk, Luhansk, Crimea, people who are dear to me, most of them, that I met before all of this. Some stayed behind, most of them that were young and smart, of child bearing age left those areas of direct conflict, to forge a new life somewhere else, some in Kiev, some going to Lviv. There can be no referendum on the Donbas when those who support Ukraine's version of reality were forced to flee their homes. There are millions of refugees from the conflict.
And why does the Russia send their best boys, send out decent men to go kill people in Ukraine? - how is that a win? How do they feel, when their favorite peoples come home to their obscure Russian towns on board with covert military burial operations?
War is not pretty. I myself, personally witnessed the young men of Ukraine POW's who had their fingers cut off, brutally when they were prisoners of the war (and that isn't all the body parts being cut off of Prisoners of war while they were tortured and brutalized in captivity) The Chechens fighting on the Russian backed Separist forces were said to be the most ruthless.
Maybe those boys had some identification that they were marksmen in the battles, or they were arbitrarily abused. Thanks to God, that those mistreated POW's I know were returned somehow into Ukraine's Hands from these brutal situations. If you didn't get the memo, I am not in this situation to advance the benefit of my own personal situation. I care about these people caught in the conflict.
And every day some part of my heart suffers sadness about this situation. There is really no reason for it . It is a weirdly asymmetric conflict, in that Russia is massively more well equipped and was trained for combat and asymmetric warfare than Ukraine was at the outbreak ,
yet clearly USA is massively more significant economically, than the Russian Federation. Texas nearly beats the official Russian economy almost hands down, we could argue the details sure, who has the bigger grey economy> ? Possibly Texas !
This is not a situation for ribaldry, joking about. Russian interests are not served by a nuclear exchange, Europe or anywhere else, from Lahore to Tel Aviv, Shanghai or Saint Petersburg, Detroit, Strasbourg, or Philly all places within the context of Nuclear war , It is real, it can all end quite badly, especially if it continues to be somewhat mismanaged. And I mean to imply badly for the Planet, not just badly for Ukraine. there is chatter about environmental catastrophe for the agricultural, farming Biome of Crimea, and I think it's only relevant within the context of Soviet Era engineering (to bring water artificially to the dry places of Crimea. In the long view, I would hope Crimean native variety of lichen will survive, there are distinct sub species within the territory. The business of harassing shipping traffic to Berdyansk, Mariupol can only go so far without further sanctions and consequences.
Ukraine of course wants to fix that loss of vegetation , lend support to their captive brothers and sisters, plug the man made eco- catastrophe, yet they cannot even fully speak of it just now. They are gambling on a Russian collapse, another one, of course such things are possible. For one thing, why is Siberia behoved to Moscow, for what? They pay more to the Russian State than they receive, the ruling elites siphon off massive chunks of state wealth. It is something that needs fixing, if it can be unwound.
It's not easy in these conceptually hard times.
And when will the audio transcript/ recording of a high ranking Russian military officer giving his official launch authorization code, float to the surface regarding MH17's downing by BUK Missile?
We know Russia created the war inside Ukraine's sovereign territory. They moved massive amounts of military gear into their neighbor's territory. They can't defer to a "fog of war" narrative or excuse/ The best that they can hope for is something like a narrative that irregulars within the chaotic war zone compromised a portion of the BUK Missile launching triad.
Russia had to have sent well trained, and very cognizant people into Ukraine with this anti-air defense systems. The question remains to be asked, did they intentionally shoot down a civilian air transport flight, and why , if that were so ?
I feel that the fact of war being brought into the territory of Ukraine and Syria by Russian Federation, that there is a potential hidden dialog, back channel between Ukraine and Syria. I met Syrians at the super market in variant back water places of Ukraine before all of this broke out.
Soon, Mister Putin will, (has exuded) his mitochondrial powers over the metabolism of Donald Trump and the world is breathlessly awaiting the potent media frenzy. A lot of Third World War theorists will push their messages this way and that.
http://www.ukrweekly.com/uwwp/russia-expands-fleet-in-sea-of-azov-to-some-40-ships-kyiv-warns/
For President Trump, I think he will experience this something like a Brain Spa : his impatient body language while in England is glaringly obvious (moronically cutting off the Queen). There is no doubt that extensive intelligence was derived from the Trump/ Kim meeting in Singapore, and passed on to the Russians to allow them time to prepare for the Trump/ Putin meeting.
One expects that calm, assiduously measured voices will ultimately rule the East/ West dialog. Putin will dangle the promise of significant results for the war on terror (Russians expelled Chechen men from Dagestan via coercion to leave those small towns where they could make trouble within Russia , to go join ISIS in those theaters of War in Iraq, now they offer insight, it's really probably not so useful) Possibly Edward Snowden will become the low hanging fruit in this secret negotiation between Trump and Putin, as if Putin might say that this young Chelyavek Snowden is not so useful or interesting for him to keep around. There is always a trading list... this would only be spoken of, in the private meeting . Russia has a lot of intelligence about the USA, how much fabricated or real I can't say. But as I understand the situation, some information the USA has is highly compartmentalized. All that they need to do is shift his (Trump's) thinking towards disbeliever status.
. Donald Trump as a builder, will measure his hand of cards and not gamble, but state his position in some hopes of some type of averaging the differences to his USA's favor. Perhaps Mister Putin will try to shake things up and say "hey Donald, why not we both call our attaches and have them bring the Nuclear football, we can each carefully open up our devices simultaneously .... and show the world how easy it could be to end everything that we Love and care for.
Now the writer of Ukraine Starting Over, actually is of Croatian descent. I am also half Serbian , Half Croatian and allegedly part Russian as well. Plus I am Irish and French Catholic and a part of my family ran the store in Stinking Creek Kentucky (we go back in time and history) . SO many of us people are amalgamations of variant histories, some of us struggle, and some get on the bus to success at an early age. I don't view myself as a Russo -phobic person, I like my Russian friends : I simply differ with the Kremlin's tactics as they relate to Ukraine. Ultimately, I suspect that Russia will greatly regret it's actions in Ukraine, and those actions may upset the apple cart in both Russia and possibly in the USA. Russian policy is making the Donbas into a stinking creek, a cesspool of bad energy.
The Democratic and Republican Parties have certainly exuded their fair share of greatly scandalous corruptions, many things that that shocked their variant bases of support.
As it stands, it seems that Mister Manafort became a complete tool of Russian Foreign policy, that his endeavors to bolster the opposition Bloc in Ukraine, (in 2014) they were simply a part of this mechanism to augment the internal and external social media narrative of the Russian Federation (as they moved toward consolidating the seizure of Crimea) Also his efforts served to disrupt the media narrative within Ukraine. I was there at the time, it was a hyper -Patriotic mood. I could never imagine a spontaneous recital of America's National Anthem on a public transportation infrastructure within my lifetime like I did as young people did start to sing their anthem on the escalators of Ukraine's Metro in Kiev . Were people breaking into singing the Russian anthem in 2014, on the Metro in Moscow ?
Manafort's work after the Euro Maidan only served to advance that narrative of the Russian elites that were quietly off shoring their massive personal wealth, within that perfect moment of distraction, and hysteria built up around alleged Ukrainian facisti. Those video segments of emboldened , yet lawlessly irreverent goon squads busting into city council meetings in Kiev to confront the Party of Regions Politicians after the Euro Maidan conclusion, of course they were entitled to be angry, but is that what lies in America's future? Russian media apparatus does not have to work very hard to maintain their internal media narrative, USA and Ukraine are doing the big work for them as I sort of sense it to be. Yet Ukraine has gotten wise to that fact , they also can play the 3 level chess boards . ' The rouble will continue some decline, as will the US dollar. Block chain/ bit coin will be viewed as sketchy, and the devil, or heaven will be found in the mountain of details.
Mister Putin has a deep personal file relating to events of Solar Eclipses, somewhere I found it and read the lengthy outline, yet he seems to have gotten it buried, as I went through 20 pages in Google search, couldn't find it. According to the file I read, many of the key moments of his career and ascension towards the present were aligned with Eclipse events that covered Europe. A number of Journalists investigating his actual personal history have been killed. It is all rather spooky stuff.
https://www.zeit.de/feature/vladimir-putin-mother
Maybe Mister Putin will buy one or 2 of the Blue Horizon sub-space orbital experiences Jeff Bezos is offering ? The guy has done everything else. Why not ?
With the total Lunar Eclipse of July 27, I sense that there is great risk of an amphibious land invasion from the Azov Sea.
Coming out of the Trump summit, Putin's exuding of his power would easily be manifested via an amphibious Marine based Invasion force to take over possibly Berdyansk, Ukraine . It would be like a classic World War 2 style taking a city Hostage event. Berdyansk is a cool town , a small town by most people's perspective.
From there, Russian Federation forces could easily encapsulate Mariupol from 2 sides (just leaving a back door open for the population to flee, and thus forth, quickly take the entire Sea of Above coastline by armed force, with the eventual goal of taking all of Zaproizhia, and all territory of Ukraine East of the Dnipro river (AKA Land bridge to Crimea).
The roads into Berdiansk can/ could easily be blocked and defended, with minimal personnel forces, Ukraine attempting / trying to send in reinforcements would be difficult considering Ukraine's current resources. Even now there are signs of disturbances in Berdyansk, of what nature they are, I cannot discern fully
And of course, that would probably tank Ukraine's economy, throw the country into chaos, yet I think that the Political costs would be far too high at home, within Russia itself and the Military-Oligarchic apparatus that governs the Russian nation. People already feel the harsh bite of sanctions, this only would exacerbate it/ Potentially converting Russian territory into the worlds' most internalized economy, they could surpass North Korea, for God's sake....
And while it would be a massively bloody and divisive phase of this ongoing war, create an ugly mass civilian exodus from this hypothetical war zone , there is no real logistical / defensive strategy to stop the Russian military from doing it, without too much significant casualty to their fighting forces , unless the West, USA was figuring on entering the conflict theater somehow ,
potentially wed be risking all out Nuclear, war: Mutual Assured Destruction. Their Russian Ultimate goal for that hypothetical moment of uncertainty might plausibly, being something like an attempt to take the water from the Dnipro river , without asking Ukraine, sending it back to Crimean territory. And what could the World do, increase sanctions ? Ukraine doesn't have an air force capable of fending off Russian fighter jets, and they don't have a Navy that could do much.
Ukraine lost half, or more of it's Navy in the seizure of their territory.
They don't yet have the gear, or the training. When the hostilities broke out, it was said to be 85:1 in defense spending between Russia and Ukraine, so what now it's 85/3 maybe 85/5 ?
President Poroshenko may have noted in the last week that Russia has imported more military hardware into Ukraine , in the form of tanks, armored vehicles guns , etc than what Germany has in total to defend itself. Whatever it is , it is a massive amount of destructive, deadly apparatus
these alleged "real deals"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-05/putin-is-said-to-prepare-a-real-deal-trump-can-tout-after-summit
could only be a facade to distract, and catch flat footed the political apparatus of the Western "Liberal Democracy"
There is a lot of dirt circulating about the Trump ascension to power:
https://www.buzzfeed.com/anthonycormier/ivanka-trump-putin-moscow-meeting-michael-cohen-tower?utm_term=.xeNn5OVVj#.phOyDzllr
yet the fact of a provocation, leading to a Maritime landing force, upon the beaches at the Sea of Azov: You think they would not do such a thing? Ukraine has few defensive forces capable of resisting. All their military capacity is focused on sealing off the Luhansk and Donetsk region
this, below linked video with George Tuka and some others, It is an interesting dialog, not that I follow everything, but if you watch towards the end, at the 1:15:17 mark, there is a sign, just some inadvertent mistake dropping a phone on the floor , yet the panel agreed it was some sign of agreement of significance . They are arguing among themselves about things differing on nuance and policy directions. it is a very valid overview, in my opinion.
https://youtu.be/-9tf7XKyKDw
https://www.rferl.org/a/sea-of-troubles-azov-emerging-as-tinderbox-in-russia-ukraine-conflict/29417753.html
oh, perhaps Putin can somehow convince Trump to ditch his commitments, itinerary, and take an old school #roadtrip into Russia , visit the Dacha , and have a real, seriously real, Russian experience? After all he is the President of the United States of America, the most powerful man in the world. Does he not call his own shots? In some ways, I am actually in favor of that. Maybe he could go an entire week, without tweeting? Watching the Lunar Eclipse with Vladimir Putin, but waiting a week to tweet about it? It sounds impossible, but if you lived in Ukraine (OFF AND ON, AS I DID ) these last 4 years, nothing is really too unbelievable.
WELL I FEEL BITTER ABOUT the suffering, repression imposed on CRIMEA, of course I have long term friends there, who keep mixed opinions about things, I miss it, I am sure that very, very bad things will happen to me if I go there due to my activities: Hey Vlad, Don't Novichok me Bro! My family has had KGB handlers before, and at the end of the day, we are all just people, trying to find a better way forward. Yet in Ukraine today, the punishment at all levels, is only going backwards.
It's an interesting comparison to look at Crimea's situation, in retrospect to this US Government article about the US occupation of Haiti, there are perhaps oddly eerie comparisons. In any case we are about to be starting the Ultimate Voodoo Summit. #HELSINKI
this writing is telling about the situation in Crimea, Our Crimea: it can be fully understood within the Google chrome translation.
https://inforesist.org/novosti-kryimnasha-okkupant/?utm_source=traqli&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newzmate&tqid=lKPvciQmBh8BriIt5D_yr.xY8V1ajgVBPNtfZw%24%24
with Donald Trump as the President, we are in a an all out Thriller !
yet the question starts to loom for America. Can he be removed ? Isn't Pence worse for Trump's opposition? Certainly, there's no Constitutional mechanism to sort out the legal questions surrounding a potential dual impeachment of the President/ VP. And he has nearly/ already gotten done with his second High Court appointee. The investment Market still loves the American economy... for now {
I'd guess that the Playbook is still pretty wide open, there are variant forms of non synchronized, counterintuitive investment strategies: if you hold stock in Pork Belly futures in Ukraine, although they could be down, maybe you should hold on for a bit ? The only investment that I hold there, is emotional, for now: And of course , I have an all access pass to the good fishing spots.
https://en.hromadske.ua/posts/sheremets-daugther-the-investigation-has-no-clue
Pavel Sheremet was my friend, however briefly , it felt that we were well met. We encountered each other at one of those small cafes near Independence square in 14, or 2015. I think he got me quickly enough that I wasn't there to be a fact based journalist, I was only there for creating fiction. And of course there is plenty of fiction you can work with within the narrative of Ukraine. He was with a couple of friends, I was alone at the next table in close quarters. He seemed to have a vast instinct for things, well outside the ordinary. The question I want to ask is which of the multitude of investigations has no clue? Can't they just "waterfall" or Cascade all of the variant databases, do both and compare the results? One takes less time, the other more, unless it's done in the cloud.
without the faintest shred of evidence , I humbly request for the investigators of my friend's car bomb killers to start a fresh white board. USA's Republican Party held it's nominating convention that elected Donald Trump to be their candidate, when the car bombing occurred. Mister Manafort was Mister Trump's campaign manager. During Mister Manafort's tenure as advisor to Yanukovych's Party of Regions, then later the opposition Bloc, it is well known that at such levels of activity, one keeps many fixers, high level fixers and low level fixers, mid level fixers.
While he (Paul Manafort ) was flamboyant and overly incautious, the man had to keep records of his expenses, who was his accountant in Ukraine, where are the records ? (follow the money)
I spent Friday, Saturday, Sunday, now Monday thinking about this thought. If a blatant Russian fingerprint is not -obvious, then why wouldn't not an American fingerprint be asked about ?.
Which is not for me to baldly accuse a man with more than enough troubles at present of involvement in such a heinous crime as a car bombing of a world renowned journalist, , perhaps he could shed some light on the situation?
As the media focuses on hush money paid to Playmates and porn stars, what of the activities of the chief of the presidential election campaign to hush the connections he had with Russian money and influence during that time when the Trump camp pushed for a Republican platform that left Ukraine flat footed in it's self defense efforts... It is only too plausible that variant components within Ukraine, and outside of it, were potentially heavily indebted to Mister Manafort, and that, accompanied with hypothetical bitcoin payments for this atrocious deed of killing Pavel Sheremet, temporarily plugged the most gaping hole in Mister Manafort's personal narrative (Stopped Pavel's story).
Bernie Sanders is good on defense issues , and why did Tad not step out of the shadow, and call out Paul Manafort ? Did Paul goad Tad Devine into utmost distraction ?
And now these random events continue, Politicians, Journalists, car bombs and things outside the normal, the war inside Ukraine is more than elevated risk, it is real
https://inforesist.org/v-kamenskom-vzorvalsya-avtomobil-s-deputatom-gorsoveta-novosti-ukrainyi/?utm_source=traqli&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newzmate&tqid=j6CiMmkjAFUBYpLZrKlb4BUqxCAu2t9bMSulew%24%24
Pavel Sheremet went to Russia (shortly before his killing , was it Moscow?) to meet with the former Ukraine's Party of regions players who'd left Ukraine, did he learn things there, that could have totally derailed the Trump Candidacy, even after the Republican Party National convention? At this point in time, the USA probably has many useful sources of information, if they can reach out to Ukraine, perhaps they can solve this mystery. It does not bring back my friend who laughed with his eyes. I visited his grave last year in my usual way, somewhat inadvertently. Yet the foreign policy goals of USA and Ukraine are not , nor should they be aligned, they are generally moving in the same direction. We should hope that common path is a friendly and gregarious, mutually assured success kind of place. Not one of recrimination and bad feelings, which is what Moscow wants to start to portray it as.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/bernie-sanders-campaign-strategist-tad-devine-turns-16-times-evidence-paul-manafort/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/democracy-post/wp/2018/07/20/whats-really-behind-putins-obsession-with-the-magnitsky-act/?utm_term=.46e160ff8964
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/07/bernie-sanders-strategist-tad-devine-paul-manafort-files-mueller
the 1990's Clinton "A team" that finagled Ukraine's Denuclearization, they had many contacts in their rolodex, and for sure, they may have attempted some over-capitalization of that subsequently (on a political level)
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jul/18/ukraine-donald-trump-helsinki-vladimir-putin-russia-conflict?CMP=share_btn_tw
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