Trout Fishing on the Tumen River:
There is a fishing and water sharing story, behind this photo taken in 2015, about this time of year in the Sumy Region, at Ukraine's Border, still fairly peacefully shared, with the Russian Federation, stretching Eastward 6 or 7 time zones clear to the Tumen River where China, Russia, and North Korea share the oddest Border zone I can possibly think of, anywhere in the world .
Often times, it seems to me, that the many complicated things, relating to War and Peace, can be outlined, white boarded as some parable for something like Trout Fishing.
Firstly, we all want that calming pleasure of going to the lake, the river, the pond to bait a hook, cast a line and catch a beautiful trout, take that bucket of fish and have a tasty, nutritious dinner cooked on the open fire. It's as we say a "teaching moment" for children and all people , fish are the best !
While it can be somewhat clearly explained, how Ukraine went down the Path of total De-Nuclearization, towards a hopefully more open society, as they emerged from being a Communist, centrally planned economy to a free market, Democratic society, and now to being the Hopeful New Darling of the European Union. Or maybe that fantasy is over ?
North Korea is perhaps hoping to be that New Darling of Asia, should they give up their Nuclear capability for the economic gift basket being offered by the Donald and Mister Bolton ? If they did roll downslope towards the chaotic Libyan model of denuclearization , then regime change, leading (hopefully ) towards an upslope process of economic integration. Perhaps I shouldn't say it but maybe Dennis Rodman does rock the boat, in his own weird way. We are beset by weird politics and strange circumnavigations of historical conventions. At the end of the day perhaps it is about access to tools and a total adhesion to the revolution not being televised ?
or possibly to try to follow the general tangent of the path of Ukraine, would they endure the many unspeakable situations of social inequality, injustice that they (Ukraine ) endured on the road to the 2014's EUroMaidan? Yet Ukraine never maintained Gulags at the time of their Independence or afterwards, this is an essential differential.
Yet with their elites mostly getting perhaps a little bit richer, and the poor getting perhaps quite a little much more poorer .
Yet that is common, to every society today, with the under educated and the under connected becoming more marginalized, within the global economy. Yet work experience in the art of trout fishing in Russia/ America and the proposed and demonstrated Nuclearization/ denuclearization kind of thing, is perhaps a little specious and perhaps even irrelevant to the new today, when all that has gone past matters not so much any more. Possibly, the blinded by rainbows trout will do the talking and the present will reinvent the past ?
What did, or could happen, with the Nuclear weaponization Program of North Korea, can perhaps be compared with something like that allegory, of a secret fishing spot, https://inforesist.org/komu-podyigral-tramp-v-singapure/
on the Tumen River. A kind of elusively lucky fishing hole, where the big ones lurk, that with just the right casting technique, rod and reel, a fisherman can land a beautiful leaping fish in his or her net. Yet the fish may not be so happy about it, he or she doesn't quite know if you will eat him, or do "catch and release" It seems to me, that with the recent shakeup of North Korean Military leadership, maybe someone didn't get their underwater drone delivery across the Tumen river?
There was clearly a time when the Soviet Union, USSR was providing vital support to North Korea's State in the late 1950's, into the early 1960's , when China simply had no money or resources to spare. That relationship was perhaps never completely superseded by Chinese ascendancy to the Place it is today, economically and so forth. Grain grown in Ukraine could well have been shipped to North Korea in those times, engineers, military equipment and so forth. I'm sure there were baguettes of fresh baked bread available in North Korea of Ukraine's grain crop, for some indeterminate period of time in the past.
It's all too plausible, that it was Russian know how, that was allowed to pass into North Korean hands to develop their Nuclear capability. Why not get the plans, components , weapons grade material, from the most highly developed Nuclear state, one with a long term, Mutual Trout Fishing relationship going back a long while ?
Why would the Russian Federation permit a Nuclear Weapons Development program by their Neighbor to the Far, far East? Perhaps they want to cultivate a schizophrenic North Korean leadership, that's loathe to trust China beyond a certain point? It does bring up the argument, that why would they take a chance to endanger their assets, territory in Vladivostok ? Perhaps, they hold a much tighter rein on the Kim regime than anybody actually realizes ? Certainly , it is a a distinctive, unhappy look on Kim's face that wash altered for Russian State Television.
Certainly June 8th, 1905 is a stand out date of reckoning for the Treaty of Portsmouth, negotiated as en ending point for the Japanese-Russian, Chinese conflict, wherein the Russian and Japanese after the battle of Mukden realized that war was simply too expensive, but even then until the Battle of Tsushima, (the World's first "Wireless " battle engagement ) there was little impetus to make a deal. After Tsar Nicholas 2 met with his Grand Dukes, he then reached out to President Theodore Roosevelt and a Peace conference was arranged in Portsmouth New Hampshire. A group of 12 items was agreed between August 8th and August 30, 1905. Boiling it down the agreement divided up railways, mines and ports, basically raw materials, gave Korea over to Japan's control.
to quote an Interesting part of this long article on Sino_Russian relations:
Constructed on orders of the Czar, financed by funds borrowed in France, and built by Chinese labour, the railway opened Manchuria to exploitation and domination by Russian capitalists supported by Russian armed force. There was a clear-cut case of imperialist aggression and exploitation, where the Soviets had an obvious responsibility to adopt a policy of revolutionary change, and at first, it appeared as though the Soviets would indeed follow such a course.
A special envoy was named to negotiate the dispute. But even as he was on his way Karakhan handed China the following ultimatum:
- A conference should be called without delay to settle all questions pertaining to the Chinese Eastern Railway.
- All illegal actions against the Chinese Eastern Railway perpetrated by the various Chinese Government Departments should be stopped.
- All citizens of the Soviet Union in detention should be released immediately and the Chinese Government should stop all oppressive action against Soviet citizens and organizations.
The Government of the Soviet Union hopes the Mukden Government and the Government of the Republic of China will carefully consider the serious consequences of opposing these proposals made by the Soviet Government. The Soviet Government expects a reply from the Chinese Government to the above mentioned items within three days, and wishes to state in advance that, failing to receive a satisfactory reply, the Soviet Government will be forced to adopt other measures to safeguard the rights and privileges of the Soviet Union.
The Chinese Government made a lengthy reply restating Chinese complaints of Soviet failure to live up to the terms of the existing agreement. Also noted was China’s opposition to “illegal propaganda” threatening peace and order in the country.
Some negotiations were initiated during July and early August 1929, but these were aborted when the Soviets presented China with a second ultimatum containing three demands:
- The personnel of the Chinese Eastern Railway to be reinstated, and the prevailing system of management restored.
- Soviet troops to enjoy the right to protect the railway.
- Chinese supervision over the Far Eastern Bank to be removed.
yet Russia should be careful in that setting precedent in taking large pieces of land from Ukraine, can bite them in the rear going forward, for these regions can be overtaken by population mechanisms:
The USA and Russia worked together through 2010 , to totally eliminate the last remnants of highly refined/ enriched Nuclear material from Ukraine. It all was sent to Russia supposedly for recycling, re milling processes, as I understand . (or perhaps some part of that stockpile got sent to DPRK ? Yet all of this was preceded by Treaty of Nerchinsk.
At this point in time, Ukraine's high road to effective Peace is perhaps accept stalemate, or figure out what they can do with the Minsk 2 Peace accords. I guess there is a low road to break the tactical Geopolitical stale mate, but I haven't quite figured it out yet. Yet as I mentioned in an earlier Post, before the Italian elections, breaking apart the EU becomes the more easy way to shelve the sanctions imposed upon them for their actions in Ukraine. That and building a perception that the USA is ineffective and an unreliable partner. The upcoming North Korean dialog may become Ukraine's best chance to show their own best Face to the World, and this timing and outcome of International perceptions will of course depend on the slant of Media coverage.
The 12 year old school children of Ukraine, might struggle to follow this parable of Trout Fishing and Nuclear Geopolitics. Potentially, This Nuclear Capable North Korea could be all to useful for Vladimir Putin's goals of Geopolitical micro-management : What has perhaps been given in secret, can be taken away, publicly garnering an enormous boost in prestige.
I suspect that there is a Russian Trump card in the Deck, waiting to be dealt , in the Negotiations with Kim Jung Un, and his DPRK leadership. Russian leadership and foreign policy teams are probably tasked with achieving behind the scenes maneuvers, to put their interests squarely on the table to steer the outcome and get credit for reaching a passable North Korean Nuclear Deal.'
Perhaps It is a good time, to prepare Tea For the Tillerman on the Tumen River. (What, you don't presume that Rex Tillerman resigned, only to go back to arbitrage and development negotiations in the Oil market ?)
As Russia can now scoff at, or demurely deflect criticism that they are parking their Nuclear Weapons on the sovereign Territory of Ukraine, and can appear to get away with their military shooting down a Civilian airplane with a BUK missile system with apparent impunity, they need something to distract the world, just a bit, like a coup in brilliant strategic negotiations (good luck with that ). And they want to have President Trump feeling a debt of obligation, if it were to happen.
Ukraine's SBU actually did seem to manage to prevent North Korean agents (some years ago ) from acquiring long range ballistic missile technology . Yet the Rocket science aspect , is probably secondary, to the whole Nuclear bomb thing.
yes, the Tumen River , what an intriguing shape it's Dragon's Tongue-like shape makes into the intersected Border zone between DPRK and Russia's Far East. What a brilliant Photo Opportunity for Xi-Xin Ping and Kim Jung UN, maybe Donald Trump, Dennis Rodman (The Worm ) or even Doctor Henry Kissinger could make , being buddies with Vladimir Putin, as they cast their fishing lures into the murky eddies of the Tumen River ! It's even got it's own special scenic Natural area, how nice ) That border zone is hardly 2 or 3 thousand feet wide, in some places, quite fascinating, as Mister Spock used to say in Star Trek parlance.
In any case, there will be little to no satisfaction for the affected persons of Ukraine and the International community who lost Family, property, lost what decent, normal lives they had before 2014, in Russia's war upon Ukraine's lands.
Whatever comes, of this intensely hyped negotiations with North Korea. Japan will try to add in some leverage, South Korea is really trying very hard to achieve Peace, but who is going to get the most from it ? And how will it help or hurt the situation for Ukraine, I can't rightly say.
It came to me this morning, of the Corn Flower Moon, as the Fog rushed in from the Pacific Ocean, that perhaps things all circle back around to where they began? Was the location of the Passengers of MH370 once again lost, within the space of the Malaysian airport, when Kim Jung Nam was assassinated by VX gas? Was the origins of DPRK's Nuclear weapons program known to him? That one who visited his mother's grave, at a Moscow Cemetery and gave money to the caretakers to tend his Mom's resting place. Perhaps, If one was to store a plane load, or half an airplane load of people somewhere , wouldn't the High security Prison Camps of North Korea be a possible scenario ? These are nearly the darkest known Prison enclaves on our planet. It appears as a classical form of the shell game, all the searches in the South Indian Ocean were quite probably financed mainly for the sake of Underwater mineral exploration.
The Pilots and the passenger manifesto were likely corrupted, manipulated and I find it difficult to believe that the first pilot had personal issues, it was... something else that happened , perhaps the world's most valuable airplane hijack in world history, yet the valuables haven't been accounted for just yet/
Was there something unusual about MH17, that made it a specific civilian target? , Why didn't the command unit of the BUK system pick up on it's transponder identifying it as a civilian commercial airline flight?
Was it all just weird numbers ? \
or human ineptitude and nothing else, some kind of random event of war ?
One thing is certain, that Professionally trained people were sent into Ukraine from Russia with the BUK mobile 3 component anti aircraft missile firing system , they were tasked with operating the command and control unit, the radar unit , the launching unit of the three unit , BUK missile system.
MH17 should have had an operational beacon, that identified itself as a Civilian airplane flight.
2 situations out of many are generally possible: that they intentionally fired on a Civilian air transport flight, or that something was tampered with, the signal, the command and control unit. Or was the highly advanced command/ radar monitoring unit out of order , just using something like binoculars , a spotting telescope, without an actual authorization from the radar or the command and control unit? It would be in keeping of a breakdown in the chain of command, wherein mercenaries were entering Ukraine, utilizing advanced weapons systems without proper training, and just doing random stuff, hoping to "win points" Yet who was paying the hypothetical mercenaries, and what was the agenda at the time? Ukraine thought that the MH17 downing would be a turning point, wherein International forces would enter, and shut down the conflict and clear the Donbas region, but it was only the hardening point of a stalemate unfortunately, with many thousands of people killed since then.
Now I suspect, albeit with absolutely zero reference, that Ed Snowden is once again, perhaps in play, that all of the foul expectorations between USA and Russian Federation will emit, in a grotesque play out of mega-political fixers, and even perhaps such modest , ex professional dishwasher fodder as I, could potentially be at the play in super economic un-integrations ? I just know that when I eat in Crimea, I walk to the room where the dishes are washed, and leave the money on the dish washer's hands, the last person I had drinks with in Crimea was a fisheries inspector parentheticallyAnd who, or what was messing with my phone this week ? it felt like a warning...
There have to be some interesting fishing stories, regarding the deep pools of the Tumen River .
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