The Ninth Gate for Ukraine Starting Over ?
A Quote of Mark Twain's follows , it is of course originating perhaps , as commentary about America's various Wars, yet it may be descriptive of a fairly universal truth ?
He was the first prominent American writer to be excoriated for questioning the USA's adventurism abroad. It reduced his then sizable income from his book sales, publisher's fees. I have not researched it, if his travel logs included Crimea yet while it's interesting to see an American Historian's overview of Russian perspective to the Region, Ukraine's view holds up better in the court of law, yet who will be the judge of that?
I don't think it is criminal for me to write / to say that the people in USA have a chance here to humanize the Russian people, and also a chance to humanize, and empathize with Ukraine's people, along with all of those other FSU Nations...As one Moldovan recently said to me "We elected the wrong people, and now we can't get rid of them"
Perhaps this Mark Twain quote has some relevance for those Russian Federation wars/ frozen conflicts created within it's FSU satellite states such as Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan ,Ukraine , Moldova,.Transnistria
Mark Twain :
“There has never been a just [war], never an honorable one--on the part of the instigator of the war. I can see a million years ahead, and this rule will never change in so many as half a dozen instances. The loud little handful--as usual--will shout for the war. The pulpit will--warily and cautiously--object--at first; the great, big, dull bulk of the nation will rub its sleepy eyes and try to make out why there should be a war, and will say, earnestly and indignantly, 'It is unjust and dishonorable, and there is no necessity for it.' Then the handful will shout louder. A few fair men on the other side will argue and reason against the war with speech and pen, and at first will have a hearing and be applauded; but it will not last long; those others will outshout them, and presently the anti-war audiences will thin out and lose popularity. Before long you will see this curious thing: the speakers stoned from the platform, and free speech strangled by hordes of furious men who in their secret hearts are still at one with those stoned speakers--as earlier--but do not dare say so. And now the whole nation--pulpit and all--will take up the war-cry, and shout itself hoarse, and mob any honest man who ventures to open his mouth; and presently such mouths will cease to open. Next the statesmen will invent cheap lies, putting the blame upon the nation that is attacked, and every man will be glad of those conscience-soothing falsities, and will diligently study them, and refuse to examine any refutations of them; and thus he will by and by convince himself the war is just, and will thank God for the better sleep he enjoys after this process of grotesque self-deception.”
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From Alexander Golts, commentary: some straight talk, with minimal distortion
(not his photo, just a pic from my archives here)
It may seem that the Kremlin managed to realize the #blue dream of every autocrat - to carry out a "small victorious war". Which at the same time, you can start and finish at your own whim. However, in the reality, salutes about the Syrian victory are arranged over the ruins. It's not just about the ruins of the cities of this Middle Eastern country. In ruins, is the Russian foreign policy. It is pertinent to recall: the entry of the Russian military group into the Syrian war in the fall of 2015 did not coincidentally coincide with the speech of Vladimir Putin, at the UN General Assembly. His then calls for the creation of a world anti-terrorist coalition were an attempt to break out of the tough international isolation in which the Kremlin was confronted by as a result of the annexation of the Crimea and the "secret" war in the Donbas. The entry into a new war was an attempt to exclude the repetition of humiliation,https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-putin-s-syrian-dilemma-back-israel-or-iran-1.5828014
Recent commentary By Kiril Sazonov :
The Russian Foreign Minister, nicknamed "the sad horse," Sergei Lavrov, decided to tempt the European Union with the opportunity to establish relations with Russia.
As if - from a clean slate to begin. In his opinion, this is a very good and beautiful transaction. Mutually beneficial - the keyword. The Kremlin in this case plays the role of an accessible, but shy girl. I agree by default, but he will not ask. Probably, this is somehow connected with their key erotic fantasy of getting up from their knees.
So, Sergei Lavrov said that Russia is open to the renewal of mutually beneficial economic relations with the countries of the European Union, but will not ask for an end to the policy of sanctions. For understanding - the lifting of sanctions the Russian Federation very much wants. As it turned out, without Western credits and technologies, Russia's economy is limping on both legs. That is, sanctions are very painful. But no one will ask - cancel yourself. And make friends with the Kremlin. As if this France from the Grads shelled Voronezh, Germany occupied Kamchatka, and Ukraine overtook all sorts of sutras in the Krasnodar Territory, reinforcing this rabble with regular troops. And now we all, including Europe, can apologize and mutually beneficial to cooperate with Russia. They will forgive us. Orwell nervously smokes from such logic.
Then it's even more fun. Sad horse, offers, I quote "resume" an equal, mutually respectful, mutually beneficial dialogue. Without ultimatums, demands to repent, apologize. " Here, of course, a great idea, but questions remain. Why not repent and apologize? What in it terrible? If Ukraine bombed Voronezh, I'll apologize first. And for the occupation of the Krasnodar Territory I will apologize. If it was, let me personally did not participate - I will repent. And immediately I confirm the repentance with an act - I will go under the President's Administration to protest against armed aggression against the neighboring state. And I will not leave there until the head of state resigns.
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Ukraine is a spiritual country to a significant extent, sure , there are Atheists and every flavor of thought and perspective. The National psychology has embedded superstitions, customs, practices , some obvious, many subtle and quite nuanced. As in any place, that the population suffers economic hardship, challenges, those superstitions and the attention to Omens become magnified. There have been many omens, such as the fainting spell of the standing guard, during Poroshenko's inauguration (the President graciously acknowledged his concern for the man)
Madame Tymoshenko, for example has clearly cultivated the persona of the White Witch (and I offer that as an intended compliment, the source of her power while image is essential, it is also internal powers at her)
Tymoshenko. She has undergone a tremendous journey through the Byzantine business and political power structures of Ukraine, emerged intact from a horrendous trial and imprisonment, and maintained her relevance to her Nation. Perhaps It is possible to zoom out and see portions of this conflict in Donbas, as a tale of 2 cities, for those in Dnipro Raion were jealous of the great shift in wealth towards Donetsk as Mister Yanukovych came to power . It all beckons to a sort of Narnia Paradigm (which my friends have utilized on occasion )
My personal intuition tells me that she (Madame Tymoshenko) , more than many in the Government , understands Mister Putin on a deeper level.
https://themoscowtimes.com/articles/the-succession-dilemma-op-ed-russia-putin-60596
While his Shamanic powers are often ascribed to the darker side, she, acting as the silent lioness, also as the Icon of the White Magic Woman, I think that she intrinsically understands all of the power structures around him, those strengths and weaknesses of his apparatus of control.
Mister Poroshenko has his own internal powers which supersede all the trappings of his business and the office he currently fulfills as President. With Ukraine, you get a tableau of other notable persons with special powers, such as Nadiya Savchenko and her channeling of Jean D"Arc. At the village level, there are people known as having powers far more potent than mere local politicians their guidance and advise is respected. They often have paramours with which they share secrets and create aspects of their magic. In such places where the footprint of civilization extends so far back into time, there are power points on the land, and vortexes, as I myself have noted Paranormal activity in the Chernobyl exclusion zone.
And yet still, there is great Ukraine Fake News, filled with weirdest speculations without any actual groundings in reality, as in people and reports to the ground.
https://www.fort-russ.com/2017/02/is-nikolaev-region-next-to-break-away.html
As if massive chunks of the Ukraine sovereign territory can be torn away bit by bit in the Western perceptions of Ukraine as something that Russia wishes to become viewed as fa failed state Authority. It's really all too easy to strip away support for the Kiev government Oblast by Oblast (Region by Region) And to do all of this within the digital environment, it's actually quite brilliant. yet more lurks far to the East, News that Tula region releases election results of the Russian federation 1 month before the plebiscites outcome. Quite interesting stuff actually, if you're not super bored by your micro-personal dramas (as am I, at times:_)
I don't write here, to make some calculations as to what is in the Best Interest of the Western powers, although I adhere to that overall perspective of my country, USA. \
I simply admit to enjoying the vast complexity of Ukraine , and it's current position in Geopolitics. \ I followed with great interest the Prisoner exchange that finished out the year, despite a steep deterioration in the ceasefire process ahead of that.
I awoke unexpectedly at 2 am that night, here in California as the news reports filtered in. The internet was blocked within the zone of exchange, so there was 10 or 12 hours of total uncertainty how it was going to be going down.
Some prisoners remain, and I know that will vex Nadiya Savchenko, as does the USA have it's prisoners all about the globe, captives of nebulous situations :
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2018/01/20/nearly-20-american-hostages-languish-around-world.html
While Nadiya Savchenko minimized her commentary, of course she's taken huge, massive risks to her freedom, safety and public status to pursue these prisoner releases and keep the captives hopeful they had a chance for life and freedom. To be sure, President Poroshenko must have personally added a few hidden candies into the deal bag. To have succeeded in the exchange, despite the worsening security situation was truly something with a touch of magic in the mix. It was a natural manifestation of the Santa Claus archetype for him to embody, I could see a rare genuine happiness in him, and it's good to see a shift, from what I have heard from people as his ongoing trend of internal unhappiness .
Be Happy! it's the ever fresh expression people in Ukraine use in English dialog.
Yet is there a light at the end of the tunnel?
Or do things , relations start to deteriorate even more?
Now it seems that despite a trend of popular sentiment, some forensic examinations of Italy's recent elections could be undertaken. While this trend was perhaps inevitable, does Italy want to accept a deadlocked Government, that may have been influenced by external elements. Is there some feel good Retro, disco music, getting played at the moment in our favorite Russian Troll factory ? Along with copious VOdka shots to celebrate another election hacking operation quite well done ? I'm going for predictive, hyper- realism. Sure it's merely speculation. Certainly, it is a shot across the bow of the European Union dream that Southern Italy feels disenfranchised from. Their talking points are relevant enough.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lloyd-russia-commentary/commentary-russias-malign-shadow-idUSKBN1GZ2LD
Quite a lot of people I ask , prior to now, they seem to dismiss the thought, I've recently floated, that pretty much all Russian Interests have to do (to end the bothersome economic and travel sanctions) is to split off either Italy or Spain from the EU. There is plenty of open commerce and hidden, grey market Russian money in both countries Spain and Italy .
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/isis-and-italian-mafia-in-artefacts-for-arms-investigation-1.2837261
https://globalvoices.org/2018/03/06/murder-of-investigative-journalist-jan-kuciak-shakes-slovak-society/
The European Union will need to adapt and reconfigure it's mechanisms of functionality and the public perceptions from all sides to counter the mix of crude and subtle attacks on it's health. With Ukraine's Association agreement, the bars of performance and mutual cooperation between member States, simply got set to a higher level. The USA's imposition of Trade Tariffs only amplifies further the marginalization pressures against the EU.
The far right viewpoints on immigration regarding welfare state concerns, risks of violence and disruptions of any kind, they are well dug into the minds of the younger as well as the older generation in parts of the Italian social landscape.
As this innocuous, obscure item I dug up indicates, perhaps they have already begun to cultivate it as part of the grand strategy ?
Such an innocently pleasant news item :
is this part of manipulation of Anti European Union sentiment in Italy?
Golfo dei Poeti - The Italian Association of Crimea thanks Fezzano for the crib sent and delivered last year in Moscow. Happy Christmas, New Year and Epiphany parties to all! Thanks to the Association Liguria-Russia and personally to Vinicio Ceccarini and Angelo Sinisi for the wonderful nativity scenes given to the Italian community of Crimea to make us feel closer to the Christmas traditions of the land of origin!
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Now, I am continually annoyed with the broader media that they refer to the Crimean Annexation, rather than calling it an armed seizure and occupation, in total violation of treaty and international laws, yet why not take the distortion a little further and call it a "Business Model" Estonia and the Baltic States have studied this pattern in great detail. Yet what is prevent Sicily from separating from Italy, or to promulgate an ultimatum that either "we Leave Italy, or Italy leaves the EU " ? It is basically the same verbal construct as the Crimean "referendum" It would be so easy for the Russian Mafia-Oligarch class to appeal to the older remnants of the still powerful Italian crime families, commiserate about their loss of status and clout. Maybe there is a plan already in motion ?
Ukraine also has a diplomatic presence within Italy : it isn't a casual backwater, there are real issues at play. One of the things I figured out is that when we buy a frozen Pizza with Organic ingredients made in Italy on "wood fired Ovens" that for a good while, maybe 10-15 years now, Ukraine was exporting wood pellets, from different parts of Ukraine I can't say for certain, yet Europe was the primary destination, the shortest travel distance. This trade in wood pellets was being run out of the Crimean territory. I know this first hand, not from news sources. Of course, next to no taxes were ever paid on this equation of exporting a compressed raw material, on paper it was a "Zero sum gain" Local palms were greased , the taxes were so small, as compared to similar exports from say Canada, that it would be amusing. Despite having some of the best Real Estate potential on the Planet, Crimea had a very internalized and Byzantine economic landscape, even by Ukraine's standards.
The only other item I feel being mis-underestimated lately, plays into the recent blocking of the Levada Center from releasing polling data : about the last thing that's expected presently, would be an inverse outcome, that finds Ksenia Sobchak undeniably elected to power. I keep telling my friends who are old enough to remember "YOU remember Sputnik , yes ? It was a huge propaganda victory for the Soviet Union ?' Yeah..... "SO why would they not achieve a massive propaganda victory if Putin loses the election and they are the first Super Power to elect a woman ?" But, it's impossible... "that is what they said about Donald Trump, isn't it? Of course at the moment, she is being portrayed as a stooge, and honestly, I haven't heard the totality of what she has to say, or hardly much at all. I withhold my impressions.https://zik.ua/en/news/2017/10/25/xenia_sobchak_is_putins_stooge_radzihovsky_1192559
Let's think about the outlandish proposition of Putin leaving power, as purely being about money: even to the point of where he would make more money in an absolute sense
https://www.russia-briefing.com/news/russias-national-debt-remain-lowest-europe.html/
Now Russians (and I am not talking the hard core Nationalists) many of them would dismiss Ksenia Sobchak as being like Paris Hilton, but maybe that's something that Paris can take to heart ? Lending star power, rather than shrinking from the comparison.
The keys of a surprise victory lie in the following areas:
1. A sudden surge in popular support, a rallying around a single opposition figure, even at the level of the Grannies, Babushka's starting to say amongst them selves "I like that woman, she's tough!" Last time that I checked, nobody actually follows Russian voters into the booth to see what they did with their ballot.
2. All such rumors of a Russian Hunger Games need to be stopped immediately. There are discussion forums going about on VK.com, that Voting districts who don't vote overwhelmingly for Mister Putin will experience significant cuts in State Public Works and operational budget expenditures.
3. THe oligarch class would have to discreetly assure Ksenia Sobchak that a transition of power is for their best interest, and that Mister Putin retires as a respected Statesman, that getting into his business gets too far into their own business and that simply wouldn't be convenient.
4. Ksenia Sobchak would have to survive the transition into power, without a military coup, putsch or otherwise calamitous outcome in a potentially disputed election. Elements of the Yanukovych faction that transferred over into the Russian Federation are said to be concerned about her threatening their own plans to shape the reconstruction of Ukraine.
Looking at an election upset, another blindsiding of the talking Heads of the Media optics: let's analyze the economics issue, get out clean sheets of paper and sharp pencils, maybe for us math challenged individuals the electronic calculator :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Russia
on paper Russia, with such relative low debt and such great Natural resource coupled with the technical prowess of a pretty well educated upper income echelon, they look great, and certainly if the crisis in Ukraine can get smoothed over, and somewhat ameliorated psychologically (by a shift in leadership ) How outlandish is the idea that the Russian Federation's voters simply decide that they will make more money and improve their quality of life, if they vote against Putin's reelection ? That is, unless Donald Trump senses that Putin is at risk of losing and steps in to try to shift their election towards the status quo ? I predict a moved up , unexpected visit by Trump, for the unstated reason that maybe he simply feels better being over there...they take care of him, make him feel good.
it could be the most dangerous story you never heard about, especially if it involved any uncertainty in the Russian Military command structures.
A short story : The Ninth Gate Starting Over (to be continued )
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