Кто в мо́ре не быва́л, тот Бо́гу не ма́ливался. Those not in the small boat in the stormy sea, don't pray to God

There are many variants of reality to the crisis in Ukraine: If one travels due East from Kiev and goes just a bit above the Kharkiv'ska Oblast, to the small towns, villages that skirt the border, one finds a taciturn, calm, easy going feeling. No local person who lives on the border is terribly worried about tanks, APC's  rolling into town :The background of this photo is Russia, the pile of fall squash, pumpkins and the smart brick house looking out across the lake, it's in Ukraine. Local people can come and go through the local border checkpoint if they are from that area on either side of the border, the border guards stay alert, but they are generally easy going and happy to facilitate a person's safe transit. Of course, they are all concerned about the trend of Geopolitics and how it might affect their work and lives. The border guards rotate into hazardous duty in the ATO zone. The families that share this region probably don't think a lot different on one side of the border or the other. Of course the Russians do stuff along the border, patrol it in their own style, test the situation as they can : it's not certain Russian Army forces would not invade through this corridor, if they wanted to go straight to Kiev, it might be the most direct route, who knows, they might even improve, widen  the roads as they go, even maybe being sure their tanks leave the road tidy in Victor Yuschenko's Home town along the way....or not : it's all speculation. But a few guys are there in weather fair and foul, being sure this small doorway for person to person diplomacy and good will stays open, as they say it, one must make the feet do the calling.

Yet such a scenario is probably pure science fiction, it would quite likely lead to a third World War. In some ways, Putin capitalized on the sense of disbelief, that they wouldn't come straight out of the Olympics and do an armed takeover of Crimea (these were probably contingent plans well laid, over the course of years, which begs the questions as to how all these events were manipulated, to what purpose, by whom and why ), and of course now people are confident they wouldn't open up a conflict in a region they aren't welcome by hardly anybody, that they couldn't afford open war on Ukraine. But the fact remains that the United States and many Nations within Europe are viewable as skittish partners of Ukraine. Everybody is worried how Ukraine will handle it's situation : in my opinion, they are doing the best they can manage and they are prepared to live with what they get out of it. Sure they are printing money, risking default, propping up their military with bake sales and Lemonade stands, and some handouts here and there from everywhere. It's a miracle that  they generated an army nearly from scratch , and deployed such a ready force of patriotic souls ready  to battle with a well rehearsed , proxy army backed by one of the world's most powerful militaries.

Ten Months ago, heads of households were checking every morning in KYIV, about the status of the protests, clashes here, shootings there, Metro and transit systems affected, fires, people being kidnapped, disappeared , beatings : it became like a weather report. The President fled to Russia and the rest is history well enough known about.
Now it is the War in the East, every day news of more men killed in skirmishes, shelling and whatever random chaos can be organized to throw them off guard. Clearly, they do want a land bridge to Crimea, wouldn't mind getting past Mariupol, once through Berdyansk, there's not a lot to deal with, other than some flat country to reach Crimea. But again, that would be open warfare, Russian political and military planners have their game ready to go on it, no doubt, but it'd presage the start of a possible global economic collapse that only a few can hope to gain from.
After hitting the party circuit over the weekend in Kyiv, done the chatty reminiscing, seen the sharky maneuvers of the Dudes who don't have a significant other (which is most of the Ex-pats these days)
and generally rubbing elbows with the elites of Kyiv, I hit the escalator on Monday to check the mood, everyone seemed absorbed by their own individual problems, lost in thought.They were at least on their way to work (they to had indeed survived the weekend ). Tuesday they were looking more outward, Wednesday the look was time to really get things done, for sure. Let's hope they did!
I talked with one person who has a government ministry position on the weekend.
Of course, I am hopeful that this exorcism of those dark elements of the former government, that it worked, for all the price of grief and suffering, carnage that was paid for by the protesters toil.
President Poroshenko's clear ambition to be a historic game changer, through his wealth > his freedom from the need to take , his clear words about not playing or paying into corrupt schemes, that it is a real genuine and true aspiration  that is embraced every day, hour, meeting (or we hope that)

for the sake of the next generation, that they inherit a system that's fixed and feels nice to be part of.

 but there is Oil in them thar hills, even if it's still a backyard operation, it's going to be something, maybe what they need is some of that "can do" American know how, if they can navigate into a new hybridized style of economic development, that lets a few rules be worked around for the sake of results and the good old bottom line of business!
 As long as the work around doesn't  harm people or the environment, why not ?

Yet, sorry to say what my feet heard, the  sort of  three glasses of wine chit chat was like "sure corruption is still alive in Ukraine," just not in my department, bureau, or "Our" Department, I didn't hear that, not that way, it wasn't "they are corrupt" It was that the mechanisms of government are still dishonest and perhaps easily taken advantage of in corrupt ways. Who knows ? I have no direct experience or information I can relay. In fact, I have never seen a police man ask for a bribe or take one from anybody. Yanukovych simply concentrated the corruption at the top and didn't bother too much with the stuff at the bottom, but the money collecting hand was everywhere then, I guess. Now I can't say, I don't see it, hear about it, feel it.

But isn't nearly every system corrupt, back scratching, nihilistic and eager to hide it's crimes and misdeeds ?  http://www.foxnews.com/us/2014/11/19/pennsylvania-attorney-general-porn-emails-in-scandal-involved-kids-violence/
One thing is certain, that trying to get any business done in Ukraine is now really complicated, with the slide in the value of the currency, valid concerns about corruption, with perhaps few ways to mitigate the slowness of the old system. Westerners are impatient people. Ukraine wanted this EU economic agreement, they wanted to move towards honest, fair, efficient government. They want to make money and have a better life. But the corrupt thinking style remains, one can't change several generations of corrupt practices. Now the old Guard maybe wants "Open Corruption" being able to do stuff like Americans do, that teases the line between what's legal and just plain wrong.

Кто в чин вошёл лисо́й, тот в чи́не бу́дет во́лком. Regular folks wait to see if Lustration works out. Will the new breeds of foxes hybridize with the domesticated dogs, or team up with the wolves ?
And who are the wolves and the sheep within this allegory ? So many players, Russia, Germany, Poland and all the EU, England, Turkey, China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, it'll make your head dizzy.

As an example, one lady I know whose social profile is synonymous with the luxury life, with important government connections, whose grand parent had at one time headed up the Ministry of shoes ( yes they had a ministry for everything under the USSR),  her other family people, maybe some streets are named after. I don't want to be too critical of her, she is smart, good looking, diplomatic. Yet she said I was wasting my time doing anything to help , that selflessness is foolish. Even as she is looking for work, doesn't have anything to do other than visit the spa and get her nails done, probe her contacts in the Russian, Ukraine community in London to give her son a shot at joining some exclusive British law Firm, after paying for his tuition at exclusive English University, Preparatory schools, She uses words like "they are throwing boys and men like meat into the grinder to pursue this war" not her son, she  doesn't want any part for him in Ukraine's future. She says that her ex says Poroshenko is "rotten inside" yet these are the people, the elites who feel like they lost out in these events, their former access to money and power is vastly more limited.  I can't blame her for wanting the good old days when Russians were red carpet, the good old boys that were part of the Grand old Soviet State tradition. One thing is certain, Her son will not be left in the cold, wounded , maimed, tortured. And she has no interest to help those brave people who did go to defend their borders and homelands against terror and lawlessness. But that luxury life style isn't getting dished out on a gold platter anymore, maybe it was a good ride while it lasted. I have to be careful as she can harm me, if she wants : it's still a friendly social scene, for now.

This is a class war, in my mind there is no question about it. Yet all levels of society have joined together, upper, lower and middle, to fight the good fight for freedom from foreign tyranny, just as America once broke it's ties to England : now we are best buddies. Let's hope things can resolve and move on, as quickly as possible.
And as much bad press in the West about Svoboda, and other right wing parties , my impression of the rhetoric and general tone is simply that yeah, these are working class people reacting to systemic corruption and injustice. And sure, everybody tends to overreact when faced with tremendous psychological stress. These former Communist party elites, they had hidden wealth at the time of Independence, they had beautiful wives, nice homes, strategic knowledge : they were smart, and they had no trouble to leverage that advantage aggressively.

I try to hear the Russian side, yet their media feels like it's an electric eel with powerful voltages one can't see but certainly feel. Through freedom of the Press, or a reasonable semblance of that, Ukraine seems to have reached , in my opinion an arguably diverse, pluralistic social paradigm, with reasonable checks and balances. People who grew up in these Russian speaking regions, they didn't think a whole lot about if they felt more Ukraine culture, more Russian, they were watching Power Rangers on TV and silly cartoons that seldom if ever even mentioned much about what was Ukraine style and Russian style. American culture seduced Ukraine, Hollywood movies, they were drawn to it, and of course Hollywood does a good enough job casting aspersion on the US Government that they feel it's somewhat neutral. But there are also some Russian film makers out there...

While we grew up in the sixties watching "Bullwinkle" with "Boris and Natasha" as the bad guys. Rocky the squirrel was always helping Bullwinkle and all that to get out of these farcical problems caused by Boris and Natasha. We all knew it was strange business that some guy named Oswald who went to Russia, then returned,  killed our beloved President. But even as kids, we knew the official version had to be doctored perhaps radically from the truth. Was it LBJ, the Mob, the CIA, the Cubans, the KGB, the Masonic conspiracy gone wrong?  Everybody is subtly affected by early childhood experience, and it's for sure a trend that people are leaving these occupied areas of Ukraine so that their children can learn in the Ukraine system, something that will embed a little friendly skepticism and encourage self analysis.

they want to be where the fruit tastes great and the water is fresh, where they can feel free and happy.

 Yet will those who stood front and center, bailing out the boat in the storm of this year, jumping overboard to rescue their people clinging to life in the tempest of war, while sharks circle about, will they in the end, once again get short changed by those who know how to get ahead, work the system?
Now of course despite some random stuff, there are tremendous, giving, devoted, selfless, caring people, both in the social elites, and amongst the working folks who keep this place going, keeping the floors mopped, cleaning the toilets, sweeping the streets, washing the rich people's cars. As we say, a few wormy apples don't spoil the barrel.
Walking back late last night in the drizzling, cold damp rain, Kyiv was quiet, like a ghost town, nary a taxi in sight, car on the road, empty feeling was readily apparent, buildings without any lights, graffiti all about, lack of maintenance, but it's still a beautiful city. It feels safe enough for now, but it's a question of how the war will settle, will the terrorists in the East visit Kyiv or other cities ? It wouldn't be too hard for them, unfortunately. Decent jobs are more and more scarce, those with jobs, family, careers they like, like it here. Yet the constant apprehension of what is next weighs on people, despite their optimistic nature as a people, filled with incredibly robust positivisim.

I miss not being able to see my friends in Crimea if I could see the whiteboard of what it's do to my status, and I think everybody feels bad about it, the whole thing, it's a mess. Ukraine is caught between two worlds, and nobody really bothered to ask if they'd mind all this turmoil before it started.
As the nephew of the former commander of the logistics management for the Pacific Nuclear submarine fleet,

 I used to think it was cool my lunch date was the daughter of a Nuclear missile systems engineer, who came from one of those secret Russian towns that's not even on the map , somewhere in the far North, she came to Ukraine for her health, to benefit from the sunshine and good climate, and we could just be friends, drinking buddies, talk about our boy/girl relationship issues. There was hardly even a mention of Politics, just chatting bout our daily stuff, careers, normal stuff. I guess those times are gone, it's all paranoia and media induced impressions where the part left out of the picture is just as important as what's in it. I'm just an ex-professional dish washer who knows how to cut a board and drive a nail, wondering how, when and if this place can rebuild from here. They can do anything, if they work together

but if we're going to fight, let's play fair .
Краси́во жить не запрети́шь.